The final weekend of nine-furlong preps in New York, California and Kentucky didn't vault any unexpected new shooters to the top of the GI Kentucky Derby pecking order. Yet while the likely favorites look well established, none stands out as invincible, and there's an intriguing mix of mid-priced long shots deeper down the list. Next week we'll expand to rate the Top 20 contenders.
1) COMMANDMENT (c, Into Mischief–Sippican Harbor, by Orb) O-Wathnan Racing; B-Lee Pokoik (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Sales history: $485,000 RNA Wlg '23 FTKNOV; $475,000 RNA Ylg '24 FTSAUG; $500,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime record: GISW, 5-4-0-0, $1,017,339. Last start: WON Mar. 28 GI Curlin Florida Derby.
Commandment, a winner of four straight, including three Gulfstream stakes, also has a maiden win over the Churchill surface. His edge is rooted in sturdiness and reliability, having demonstrated he can extricate himself from disadvantageous positioning to predictably come barreling down the lane.
In the Jan. 3 one-turn-mile Mucho Macho Man Stakes, this Brad Cox-trained son of Into Mischief ($485,000 RNA FTKNOV; $475,000 RNA FTSAUG; $500,000 KEESEP) was confidently handled while getting an inside trip, but got blocked behind a wall of four horses turning for home. Commandment bulled his way through a top-of-the-lane gap, powering away to win by 6 ¾ lengths (90 Beyer Speed Figure).
In the 1 1/16-miles GII Fountain of Youth Stakes Feb. 28, Commandment absorbed a bump at the break, raced covered up through the first turn and down the backstretch, split two sets of horses on the far turn, then took advantage of a wide-open rail and sparred relentlessly down the lane with 'TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard' Chief Wallabee (Constitution). He prevailed by a neck over a short-stretch configuration (101 Beyer), then was asked to gallop out with good energy to the traditional finish half a furlong down the stretch.
That second wire was Commandment's target in the nine-furlong Mar. 28 GI Florida Derby. The race came up “loaded” on paper, and it lived up to that billing. Commandment ended up being farther back off a tepid pace than Flavien Prat wanted, yet made up serious ground looping the group on the far turn. He finished fastest on the outside to snatch a head-bob victory by a nose from The Puma (Essential Quality), with a trip-troubled Chief Wallabee another half-length back in third. Commandment and The Puma co-earned 100 Beyers.
If there is a cautionary flip side to Commandment's workmanlike way of going, it's that he probably isn't the type of colt who is going to uncork an out-of-nowhere “Wow!” effort on the first Saturday in May. What you see is what you get with Commandment. That style sometimes wins Derbies. Often it rounds out exactas and trifectas behind horses who break out big-time and run the race of their life on Derby day.
2) RENEGADE (c, Into Mischief–Spice Is Nice, by Curlin) O-Robert Low, Lawana L. Low, and Repole Stable; B-Robert Low & Lawana Low (KY); T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales history: $975,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime record: GISW, 5-2-2-1, $1,031,500. Last start: WON Mar. 28 GI Arkansas Derby.
Renegade has fused two potent winning attributes: The ability to accelerate during the deep stages of his races, while backing up those visually striking moves with final-fraction numbers that are unrivaled among his Derby-bound peers.
Breaking his maiden in the Feb. 7 Sam F. Davis Stales at Tampa, this $975,000 KEESEP son of Into Mischief from Todd Pletcher's barn rated next to last and circled the field five wide, opening up by 3 3/4 lengths. He earned a 93 Beyer, but the more important number out of that race was Renegade's final sixteenth, clocked in 5.97 seconds. That's the fastest in 18 points-awarding Derby preps at 1 1/16 miles in the 2025-26 season.
In the Mar. 28 GI Arkansas Derby, after a couple back-of-pack momentum stalls while Irad Ortiz, Jr. tried to pick a path through traffic, Renegade blasted off five wide through the far bend and kicked away with a devastating turn of foot to win by four lengths (98 Beyer). He quickened home through his last furlong in 11.84 seconds-the fastest final eighth in any Derby qualifying prep in at least the last four years.
As a handicapper, it's easy to get seduced by watching a still-developing prospect like Renegade detonate on cue. He certainly does leave the impression he might have an unmatchable late gear over 10 furlongs.
But objectively, you have to take into account that Renegade was running up the score without anyone giving him a serious test down the stretch at either Tampa or Oaklawn. He will go into the Derby having not faced a stern, late-race challenge in six months, since the now-sidelined, formerly No.1-ranked Paladin (Gun Runner) beat him in the GII Remsen Stakes.
Renegade also drifted out while well clear in both the Davis (with Ortiz applying left-handed stick work) and in the Arkansas Derby (wandering to the eight path while Ortiz kept him to task).
Remember, Renegade got DQ'd from his maiden win in front of Paladin last October for drifting out in the stretch under John Velazquez. He's been since asked by Ortiz to circle the field on the far turn in three straight stakes.
3) FURTHER ADO (c, Gun Runner–Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa) 'TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard'. O-Spendthrift Farm LLC; B-John C. Oxley (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Sales history: $275,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP; $550,000 2yo '25 OBSAPR. Lifetime record: GISW, $1,146,328. Last start: WON Apr. 4 GI Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.
With a 106-Beyer, 11-length trouncing of the GI Blue Grass Stakes field on Saturday, this son of Gun Runner is establishing himself as the “now” horse heading into the Derby.
Further Ado was among the first on the early Derby radar with a 20-length, two-turn maiden blowout at Keeneland Oct. 10. But his win in the Nov. 29 GII Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes–which earned only a so-so Beyer of 82–wasn't enticing enough for him to land a spot on TDN's initial Derby rankings while trainer Brad Cox gave this colt an early winter break.
Further Ado resurfaced with purpose Mar. 7, running a very sharp second as the 2-1 second choice off a 3 1/2-month break in the GIII Tampa Bay Derby, pressing the pace and getting beat by only three-quarters of a length behind an onrushing, in-form The Puma.
Off as the .85-1 favorite in the Blue Grass, Further Ado was a forward factor leaving the gate. Irad Ortiz, Jr. opted to keep him in the clear five paths off the rail into the first turn. By the six-furlong pole, Further Ado had settled into a sweet stalking spot outside and third behind dueling pacemakers.
He advanced under his own power a half mile out, gradually building momentum with an in-hand cruise through the far turn. Further Ado effortlessly crested the field at the quarter pole and widened his winning margin against a badly overmatched bunch, with no rival mounting a serious late-race bid and the second- and third-favorites both out of the money.
Beyond what you see in his past performances, Further Ado rates highly because he's light on his feet and is a nimble, athletic mover. Those are excellent attributes to have in a 20-horse cavalry charge like the Derby.
But the big question in assessing Further Ado is be the quality of his competition. In the Blue Grass, he beat only one listed stakes winner and one Louisiana-bred stakes winner. In six career races, while compiling a 3-1-1 mark against 50 other starters, Further Ado has only once finished in front of one Grade III winner.
4) THE PUMA (c, Essential Quality–Eve of War, by Declaration of War) O-OGMA Investments LLC, JR Ranch and High Step Racing LLC; B-Hidden Brook Farm & Brian Kahn (KY); T-Gustavo Delgado. Sales history: $95,000 RNA Ylg '24 KEESEP; $150,000 2yo '25 OBSAPR. Lifetime record: GSW, 4-1-2-1, $442,280. Last start: 2nd Mar. 28 GI Florida Derby.
The Puma's stock got a boost when Further Ado, the horse he out-photo'd in the Tampa Derby, came back to crush the competition in the Blue Grass Stakes.
So did The Puma's winning Beyer figure from that Mar. 7 stakes, which was preliminarily assigned a 95, then readjusted to an 89, and now, a month later, is back up to a 94 after Further Ado won the Blue Grass.
Unlike Further Ado, The Puma sports robust company lines: In addition to finishing in front of that No. 3 rival on this list, he's lost by a nose to No. 1 Commandment, run third behind No. 2 Renegade, and has once beaten and been beaten by No. 7 Chief Wallabee.
The gamble on The Puma ($95,000 RNA KEESEP; $150,000 OBSAPR) in Louisville will come down to whether you think he's already peaked or if he can continue to slug it out with top-of-crop competition over 10 furlongs.
The Puma's Tampa Derby and his Florida Derby were similar in that he was 7-1 in the betting and four wide most of the way around in both races.
The tactical takeaway from The Puma's Florida Derby that might-but shouldn't-get obscured is that he did all the far-turn dirty work by being first to take on 7-5 favorite Nearly at the quarter pole.
Once The Puma drilled that rival into submission, he got no breather, immediately having to fight off fresh salvos in the stretch from both Commandment and Chief Wallabee.
The Puma did not shy from that task, and his nose was ahead of Commandment's one jump before the wire and one jump after it. The result could have easily gone the other way if the cadence of the colts' head-bobbing was different.
Delgado and jockey Javier Castellano teamed with another lightly raced colt, Mage, to win the Kentucky Derby at 15-1 odds in 2023. Mage had also finished second in the Florida Derby, making only his third lifetime start.
5) DANON BOURBON (c Maxfield–Wild Ridge, by Tapit) O-Danox Co Ltd; B-Blue Heaven Farm (KY); T-Manabu Ikezoe. Sales history: $450,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime record: 3-3-0-0, $222,733. Last start: WON Mar. 28 Fukuryu Stakes (allowance).
Danon Bourbon, who turned three Apr. 6, will try the Derby off a 3-for-3 campaign in Japan in which he has rolled home by an aggregate 18 ½ lengths without being fully extended over right-handed courses.
Danon Bourbon | Horsephotos
This $450,000 KEESEP colt by Maxfield closed at 23-1 odds in this past Saturday's Pool 6 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW).
He will be the first North American starter for Manabu Ikezoe, a Group 1-winning trainer who previously worked in Ireland under Aidan O'Brien.
In his mud-track maiden debut at 9-2 odds Oct. 26 over 1800 meters (8.95 furlongs) at Kyoto, Danon Bourbon took charge at the start in a field of 16, was confidently handled through the far turn, then widened his lead with ease to score by 10 lengths.
Trying 1900 meters (9.44 furlongs) against one-win allowance company for a $102,224 purse at Kyoto Feb. 15, Danon Bourbon was favored at 9-10 over “fast” going. He stalked menacingly from third behind two pacemakers, edged up in hand on the far turn, responded instantly when cued to quicken, then powered past 200 meters out to win by five lengths.
A similar prowl-and-pounce move over 1800 meters in a muddy Mar. 28 $227,900 Fukuryu Stakes (allowance) at Nakayama resulted in a 3 ½-length victory as the 11-10 fave.
Danon Bourbon is scheduled to arrive at Churchill Downs Apr. 21.
6) EMERGING MARKET (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Wild Empress, by Empire Maker) ”TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard'. O-Klaravich Stables, Inc.; B-Stoneriggs Farm (KY); T-Chad C. Brown. Sales history: $185,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $618,880. Last start: WON Mar. 21 GII Louisiana Derby.
Emerging Market was back in action on Saturday, breezing a half mile in :50.80 (53/61) at Payson Park to record his first published work two weeks after winning the 1 3/16-miles GII Louisiana Derby by a head in just his second lifetime start.
A colt attempting the 10-furlong Derby in only his third lifetime race and coming off a six-week break? That idea once might have sounded outlandish from a development and race-spacing standpoint. But conventional training standards are rapidly changing in this less-is-more era of pointing young horses to big races.
This Chad Brown-trained son of Candy Ride (Arg) does stand out as a potential “talented beyond his experience” colt.
Emerging Market ($185,000 KEESEP) has raced effectively from both inside and outside posts, and has stalked, targeted and pulled back pacemakers while both covered up at the fence and from a few paths wide.
In his maiden victory at Tampa and again down the long home straight at Fair Grounds, he has let loose with two no-quit stretch runs that featured shoulder-to-shoulder contact, twice wresting command from stubborn foes in the shadow of the wire by narrow margins.
After stablemate Always a Runner (Gun Runner) won the Apr. 4 GIII Gazelle Stakes at Aqueduct, also in her second career start after breaking her maiden in a route at Tampa, Brown described that 3-year-old filly and Emerging Market as practically twins.
“It's ironic, I have a male and a female version. She's like a female spitting image of Emerging Market,” Brown said. “Both horses had pneumonia [last year, and] both of them had to leave my care and go in a hyperbaric chamber.”
“This filly's pneumonia was more serious than [Emerging Market's], and that's why they didn't start in the fall,” Brown explained. “They were both dead-ready to run, right here in New York and to debut the right way in the fall as two of our best prospects in their divisions. They both missed it, which I was just sick over, because I really felt I had an Oaks and a Derby horse in both horses.”
7) CHIEF WALLABEE (c, Constitution–A La Lucie, by Medaglia d'Oro) 'TDN Rising Star presented by Hagyard'. O/B-Mike Ball & Katherine Ball (KY); T-William I. Mott. Lifetime record: GSP, 3-1-1-1, $216,600. Last start: 3rd Mar. 28 GI Florida Derby.
Chief Wallabee is currently outside looking in at No. 22 on the Derby's qualifying points list.
In the aftermath of his third-place try in the Florida Derby, trainer Bill Mott said he had expected a touch quicker response when Junior Alvarado cut the colt loose.
Still, this homebred son of Constitution did spark to life later in the race when he sensed Commandment charging hard to his outside in deep stretch, and Chief Wallabee galloped out with good energy in tandem with the winner after getting beaten only half a length in a three-way photo.
The Florida Derby was a learning experience, and Chief Wallabee will no doubt move forward from it.
The open question is whether he will be primed to make that advance in start number four on the first Saturday in May.
Chief Wallabee will draw favorable comparisons to Sovereignty (Into Mischief), the Mott-trained sophomore champ from last year. Sovereignty was let go at 7.98-1 odds when he won the Kentucky Derby after running a very good second in the Florida Derby, a race for which he was not fully cranked.
But comparing Sovereignty's development arc to Chief Wallabee's isn't fair. Sovereignty had already won both the GIII Street Sense Stakes in October of his juvenile season and the Fountain of Youth Stakes in February by the time he prepped in the Florida Derby.
Chief Wallabee, by contrast, didn't even debut until his Jan. 10 score over seven furlongs at Gulfstream, and he's now been beaten twice by Commandment going 1 1/16 miles in the Fountain of Youth and nine furlongs in the Florida Derby.
8) POTENTE (c, Into Mischief–Sweet Sting, by Awesome Again) O-Speedway Stables LLC; B-Pam & Martin Wygod (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $2,400,000 Ylg '24 FTSAUG.Lifetime record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $262,000. Last start: 2nd Apr. 4 GI Santa Anita Derby.
With reference to bettability in the Kentucky Derby, I'm giving Potente (Into Mischief) an edge over So Happy (Runhappy), the horse who beat him by three-quarters of a length in the GI Santa Anita Derby.
That's because we're all the way down to No. 8 on this list before we encounter a serious early speed threat. I tend to upgrade Derby contenders who have enough lick from the gate to be either leading the pack outright or right up there with the frontrunners in such a crowded, chaotic race.
The combination of being a decent speedster conditioned by a trainer who's had seven horses cross the finish line first in the Derby, plus the likelihood that Potente will go off north of 20-1, might end up being too value-appealing a play to pass up.
This $2.4 million FTSAUG colt from Bob Baffert's stable broke well from post two in the Santa Anita Derby. He took constant pace pressure closest to the rail, lost the lead and snatched it back several times down the backside, then battled with the eventual winner for a furlong into the stretch even though it had looked like So Happy was initially going to blow past at the quarter pole. It was another 6 ¾ lengths back to the third-place finisher.
“He gave me everything he had and was fighting all the way to the end,” said jockey Juan Hernandez. “Even when [So Happy] came close to me, he was trying to come back and break. He's a great horse and he ran a good second.”
Added Baffert: “He's getting fitter and getting more experience. He'll be going to Kentucky.”
9) WONDER DEAN (JPN), (c, Dee Majesty (Jpn)-Wonder Siang Praw (Jpn), by Wonder Acute (Jpn) O/B-Yoshinari Yamamoto; T-Daisuke Takayanagi. Lifetime record: GSW, 6-2-2-0, $770,541.
Wonder Dean, a Japanese homebred by Group 1-winning turfer Dee Majesty (Jpn) out of a mare whose grandsire was the 1999 Kentucky Derby upsetter Charismatic, is already settling into Kentucky after his 2 ½-length win in the Mar. 28 G2 UAE Derby.
He tracked and reeled in a lone pacemaker over the 1900-meter Meydan distance, building momentum through a sustained push from over half a mile out.
“I had a dream run around,” said jockey Cristian Demuro. “I was able to ride him how I wanted and although he didn't have much cover, he came there so easily and then really picked up well.”
Wonder Dean closed at 42-1 in this past weekend's KDFW pool.
So Happy | BENOIT PHOTO
10) SO HAPPY (c, Runhappy–So Cunning, by Blame) O-Norman Stables LLC and Saints or Sinners; B-Leverett S. Miller (KY); T-Mark Glatt. Sales history: $12,000 Wlg '23 KEENOV; $20,000 Ylg '24 FTKOCT; $150,000 2yo '25 OBSMAR. Lifetime record: GISW, 4-3-0-1, $480,000. Last start: WON Apr. 4 GI Santa Anita Derby.
This son of 2015 champion sprinter Runhappy ($12,000 KEENOV; $20,000 FTKOCT; $150,000 OBSMAR) owns victories in a 6 1/2-fulrong maiden, the seven-furlong GII San Vicente Stakes, and now the nine-furlong Santa Anita Derby. He was not badly beaten when third in the San Felipe Stakes over 1 1/16 miles
So Happy has tactical speed that lends itself well to a stalking style. His Beyer pattern through four lifetime starts is 83-96-86-100.
Numbers-wise, he's right on the cusp of what it takes to win the first leg of the Triple Crown (last 10 Derby-winning Beyers all between 100 and 105).
But So Happy just made a leap of 14 points to prevail over nine furlongs, so he'll have to prove he can not only maintain that Beyer level, but add to it at least a little bit while stepping up in class and stretching out in distance.
A trip to Churchill Downs is still to be determined, trainer Mark Glatt said the day after So Happy's pace-pressing win at Santa Anita.
“That needs to be thought out a little more than I've had a chance to do at this point,” Glatt said.
11) INCREDIBOLT (c, Bolt d'Oro–Sapphire Spitfire, by Awesome Again) O-Pin Oak Stud LLC; B-Deann Baer & Greg Baer DVM (KY); T-Riley Mott. Sales history: $75,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime record: GSW, 5-3-0-0, $498,681. Last start: WON Mar. 14 Virginia Derby.
This lean, powerfully built $75,000 KEESEP son of Bolt d'Oro won a one-turn mile maiden at Churchill and the Street Sense Stakes there in his juvenile season.
After a “go figure” clunker that saw him sixth and last, beaten 25 1/4 lengths without an obvious excuse in the GIII Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream, Incredibolt rebounded with a four-length, 88-Beyer confidence-builder in the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs, a one-turn, 1 1/8-miles stakes that was just added to the Derby qualifying series last year.
With Albus (Yaupon) upsetting the GII Wood Memorial Stakes last Saturday, trainer Riley Mott now has two points-qualifying Derby horses. If they both get sent on to Louisville, he'll have to find a new jockey for one of them, because Jaime Torres rode each to victory in their most recent stakes.
12) SILENT TACTIC (c, Tacitus-Magical Sign, by Gun Runner) O-John C. Oxley; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Mark E. Casse. Sales history: $60,000 Ylg '24 FTKOCT; $500,000 2yo '25 OBSAPR. Lifetime record: GSW, 6-2-4-0, $1,051,922. Last start: 2nd Mar. 28 GI Arkansas Derby.
Silent Tactic closed at 32-1 odds in Pool 6 of the KDFW, which figures to be pretty close to the price point where this Mark Casse trainee is likely to go off in the actual Derby mutuels May 2.
What Silent Tactic lacks in flash and panache he makes up for with consistency. After running second in the Mar. 28 GI Arkansas Derby, this son of Tacitus is already a millionaire and has never been worse than second in six career starts, all in races over 1 1/16 miles or longer.
After going through the sales ring twice ($60,000 FTKOCT; $500,000 OBSAPR), this colt is now owned by John Oxley, who also bred (but does not own) No. 3-ranked Further Ado.
Expect Silent Tactic to be in the mix on the far turn of the Derby when others are calling it quits. A well-timed move would put him in contention for a potential upset over 10 furlongs.
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