It's an immense accomplishment to be one of the 20 Thoroughbreds out of the current sophomore crop of 17,146 to earn a coveted starting berth in the GI Kentucky Derby.
But the cruel fate of a random post-position draw annually assigns the dreaded No. 1 gate to a single member of that elite set.
Because the Derby is unmatched in American racing in its outsized stature and jumbo field size, so too is the stigma of breaking closest to the inside fence prior to the chaotic first-turn free-for-all, where primo positioning and a clean trip can take precedence over being the most talented.
The year the difficult (but not impossible) rail draw was conferred upon 2-year-old champ Citizen Bull (Into Mischief), adding another layer of complexity to his quest for a blanket of roses on the first Saturday in May.
But take heart, connections of Citizen Bull: In two of the past three years, the horse who has drawn the rail for the Derby has gone on the win the GI Belmont Stakes after running poorly at Churchill Downs.
The fact that inside-post losers in Louisville have recently been adorned with the Belmont's traditional white carnations is probably nothing more than an interesting but coincidental blip.
Yet in an anecdotal way, it does lend credence to the argument that post one has an adverse impact on Derby performance.
Last year, the rail-drawn Dornoch got bumped and brushed early, never settling while hemmed inside. Once he got free from cover, Dornoch launched a decent far-turn bid, but was forced to check hard when the hole he was aiming for closed.
Despite the momentum loss, Dornoch regrouped and boxed on with interest, but mid-stretch traffic cost him any chance of attaining a Derby placing better than tenth.
Trainer Danny Gargan bypassed the GI Preakness Stakes, and the 17-1 Dornoch forced the pace to win the 10-furlong third leg of the Triple Crown at its temporary home of Saratoga. He then won the GI Haskell Stakes in his next start.
In 2022, Mo Donegal came out of post one awkwardly and was relegated to the back of the pack.
Considering his come-from-behind style; nimble, athletic way of going, and the hot pace in that year's Derby, such positioning shouldn't have been a problem.
But Irad Ortiz, Jr., kept Mo Donegal in “wait” mode all the way to the five-sixteenths pole before asking for run, and by the time opportunity materialized at the head of the lane, they were fanned way out in the 13 path.
Even though he managed only fifth beneath the twin spires, his sneaky-good acceleration inside the eighth pole foretold a Belmont Stakes fortune reversal.
Trainer Todd Pletcher opted out of the Preakness, and Mo Donegal responded with a 5-2 favored win over 12 furlongs at Belmont Park (in what would turn out to be his final career race before a September retirement).
Sandwiched between those two years was Hit Show (Candy Ride {Arg}), a no-show fifth from the fence in the 2023 Derby. He ran fourth in that year's Belmont after skipping the Preakness, but deserves an honorable mention alongside Dornoch and Mo Donegal because of how he's since rounded into a world-class racehorse.
As a May 9 foal with only five starts, Hit Show was against the grain of seasoning even before getting burdened with the one hole for the Derby. He broke fluidly and the early part of his trip was uneventful, but Hit Show went from attack mode to being under siege and looking lost in the matter of a few strides in upper stretch.
Trainer Brad Cox didn't coax the best from this colt until ages four and now five, but Hit Show has since won five of seven stakes, most recently the G1 Dubai World Cup three weeks ago.
Since the advent of the use of a starting gate for the Derby in 1930, the aggregate record of horses starting 95 times from post one is 8-5-5 with an 8.4% win percentage and an 18.9% in-the-money ratio. The average finish is eighth.
It's an oft-cited fact that the last Derby winner from the inside gate was Ferdinand in 1986, who prevailed in a field of 16 after getting bumped to the back, rallying wide, then darting up the rail under a masterful ride by 54-year-old Bill Shoemaker.
The other Derby winners starting closest to the fence (again, only referring to 1930 onward from the gate) have been Chateaugay (1963), Needles (1956), Hill Gail (1952), Citation (1948), Gallahadion (1940), Lawrin (1938) and War Admiral (1937).
Field size can be a factor in how undesirably the one hole is perceived. Five of those Derby champs raced in fields of 10 or fewer horses, so post one was likely considered an advantage in those years, not a detriment.
The two Triple Crown winners among those rail-drawn Derby winners beat fields sized at opposite ends of the spectrum, with Citation prevailing over just five rivals and War Admiral besting 19.
Even though the gap back to the last Derby winner to break from the rail now exceeds the 37-year wait that the sport endured between Triple Crown champs, statistically speaking, the drought has been longer for post two, which has not sent out a Derby winner since Affirmed in 1978.
In fact, despite the rail's bad rap, posts two, three and four have all been less-productive draws in terms of wins. Over the same 95 Derbies since 1930, they have resulted in only seven, six and five Derby winners, respectively.
Neoequos (Neolithic), Final Gambit (Not This Time) and 'TDN Rising Star' Rodriguez (Authentic) were assigned gates two, three and four.
Gate five has been the sweet spot, the only post to yield double-digit winners from 95 editions (10-8-4 with a 10.5% win rate and 23.2% in the money). American Promise (Justify) landed that placement.
Post 10 is next-best from 88 Derbies, with a 9-6-11 record, 10.2% win-rate, and high-mark 29.5% in-the-money ratio. Grande (Curlin) snagged it this year.
Despite the favorable results out of those “five and dime” gates, how do you explain the bafflingly poor performances out of the neighbors right next door to those productive posts? Gate six is 2-for-95. Gate 11 is 2-for-84.
Don't tell that to Admire Daytona (Jpn) (Drefong) or Flying Mohawk (Karakontie {Jpn}).
Post 17 has never generated a winner at 0-for-45. Enter Sandman (Tapit)!
(Technically, two other Derbies in the era since the starting gate have generated outer-post 0-fers, with gate positions 21 through 23 also being blanked. That happened only twice, when 21 horses ran in 1981 and when 23 went to post in 1974. The Derby is now limited to 20 starters.)
Among posts that have produced at least one victory, gate 14 (2-for-68) is on the longest current winless streak, dating to Carry Back in 1961. Tiztastic (Tiz the Law) got that draw this year.
The outside gates, although not considered as unfavorable as the inner posts, are no picnic, either. Posts 18, 19 and 20 combined are a collective 5-for-87.
This year, from 18 outward, those spots belong to Sovereignty (Into Mischief), Chunk of Gold (Preservationist) and Owen Almighty (Speightstown).
There have been 17 Derbies in which post 20 has been the outermost position in the starting gate. That widest draw gave us the much-the-best, 5-2 winner Big Brown in 2008, and the improbable 50-1 bomb Rich Strike, who drew in off the also-eligible list in 2022.
Of the gates that didn't get mentioned above, post seven (8-for-94) went to Luxor Cafe (American Pharoah); post eight (9-for-94) to Journalism (Curlin); post nine (4-for-91) to Burnham Square (Liam's Map); post 12 (3-for-80) to 'TDN Rising Star' East Avenue (Medaglia d'Oro); post 13 (5-for-78) to Publisher (American Pharoah); post 15 (6-for-63) to Render Judgment (Blame), and post 16 (4-for-52) to Coal Battle (Coal Front).
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