Editor's Note: the tables mentioned in the piece below have all been inserted into the article individually in alphabetical order. Please see those for reference.
As an Englishman, I can assure my friends in the Bluegrass that America does not have a monopoly on political division. But in this rancorous age it is a comfort, either side of the water, that a mutual love of the horse can keep people not just talking, but outright friendly, who might otherwise only be yelling at each other. It is not too often that our parochial, obsessive community can offer a template for the wider world, but we can cheerfully attest that finding a passion in common is a great help in resisting demonisation.
That being so, even those in our community most dismayed by the general tenor of the current administration will gratefully acknowledge its contribution to the unprecedented buoyancy of the bloodstock market. True, they may feel rather more comfortable with a single, specific boon-namely, that lavish tax break on depreciation-than with a broader sense that this is only one of many opportunities for the rich to become richer. But even liberals can be hard-headed when it comes to business. The cold fact is that our industry depends on investment by the affluent and, one way or another, that is exactly what has driven the world's biggest yearling auction to record levels over the past two weeks.
Sure, there are other factors. For instance, albeit too unevenly to be healthy for the sport nationally, there are several circuits where purses now dignify a middle-market investment with the possibility of viability on the racetrack. That feels particularly important when so many people are breeding for the sales ring, rather than the winner's circle, however baffling the notion that these might somehow be competing objectives. It's notable that the volume of yearlings being sold is higher than a decade ago, even as the foal crop has been going the other way. And a higher proportion than ever is being sired by unproven sires, most of whom we know will fail. But in a market like this, a lot of people will be too busy counting their winnings to heed such old-school anxieties.
After all, this really does seem to be one of those rare cases where the overflow from the top of the market can filter downwards.
The Keeneland September Sale famously covers all bases. But we can fill out the picture further by combining its trade with that already reported by Fasig-Tipton during the summer, between the July Sale in Lexington and the Select and New York Sales at Saratoga. Those auctions had already shown the way the wind was blowing, and the cumulative numbers are simply dazing.
So far this year, as Table A shows, the aggregate cost of American yearlings through the ring has rocketed past $650 million, from $528.6 million at this point in 2024. The precise gain of $122,866,900, year on year, works out at an astonishing 23.2 percent. (If you include post-sale transactions, moreover, the overall market has soared from $546,881,000 to $673,337,400.)
The average ring transaction last year had achieved a strong advance, from $152,774 and $153,282 in 2022 and 2023, to $164,570. This time round, the American yearling has typically cost you $190,711, an increase of 15.9 percent.
It was at the apex, naturally, that the most lurid gains were posted. Take the number of seven-figure hips, as measured in Table B. In this respect, the Select Sale at Saratoga had maintained its recent pressure on Book 1 at Keeneland in quite spectacular fashion, tipping $100 million for the first time. Having mustered between only two and five “million-dollar babies” between 2016 and 2021, this auction had averaged a dozen across the three staged between 2022 and 2024. This year, there were 25!
How on earth could Keeneland respond to that? After all, they had posted 36 millionaires last year, up from 30 in the previous two editions. Well, this time they have processed no fewer than 56. These, moreover, were claimed by 34 unique buyers-another record, and an obviously encouraging one. (The 120 prospectors who spent $1 million or more were up from 96 in 2024.)
True, such frantic demand at the top end can be a symptom of a market polarisation. In 2018, which proved to be the height of the pre-Covid market, 32 seven-figure yearlings collectively made $42,375,000, accounting for 8.9 percent of yearling trade up to this point of the calendar. Over the last three years, equivalent sales represented 11.2, 11.3 and then 12.8 percent of trade. But the astounding total of 81 this time round, valued at $119,275,000, weighs in at 18.3 percent of the overall market.
And, yes, all these giddy headlines will be fairly cheerless reading for the many vendors who found themselves left holding the baby, as will happen eternally wherever bloodstock is sold. But the core indices at Keeneland sustained wholesome gains on what had already been a vibrant market a year previously: averages marching up by double-digit percentages across all 12 sessions; and the median doing the same on all bar the final day.
But the buyback rate, at 22.3 percent, managed only a marginal improvement on 22.7 percent last year-compared with 20.2 percent in the previous edition. While there were doubtless some who became a little overexcited, in setting their reserves, a renewed pragmatism evidently contributed to post-sale transactions exceeding $20 million.
A Changing of the Guard
Having divided the top six lots at Saratoga equally with the incumbent champion, Gun Runner made a quite astounding statement in topping each of the first four sessions at Keeneland.
Even as the indefatigable Into Mischief strolls towards his seventh consecutive title, there is no mistaking a conspicuous market momentum towards two younger stallions, the other being Not This Time, whose upgraded mares are only now cycling through. Between Saratoga and Keeneland, the younger guns had 17 seven-figure sales apiece, ahead of the champion on 10.
Ageism is a familiar, self-fulfilling vice of the market and its exponents must beware a horse as freakish in libido and fertility as in every other respect. But while Into Mischief's blend of quality and quantity should maintain his clear lead in the general sires' table, Not This Time and Gun Runner are laying down a marker in their contest for second. They have 17 and 16 stakes winners apiece this year, respectively from 265 and 252 starters, compared with 19 for Into Mischief from 411.
Two marvelous veterans, Tapit and Curlin, have this year been joined by their respective sons Constitution and Good Magic with four million-dollar babies apiece; while at Keeneland the venerable Ghostzapper seized the opportunity he had been presented by the peerless Nursery Place team by selling his half-brother to Ruling Court for $1.2 million.
The latter's sire meanwhile appears to be too sensational a success in Europe for his own good, albeit a filly at Keeneland fell only one bid short of adding another seven-figure sale to his $1.4 million colt at Saratoga. If it were only practicable, I suspect that some of Justify's yearlings could be profitably “pinhooked” as soon as Tattersalls next month! As it is, the obvious solution is for European programs to import these curiously undervalued animals themselves.
Between Saratoga and Keeneland, the millionaires' row reads like this: Gun Runner and Not This Time, 17; Flightline and Into Mischief, 10; Constitution, Curlin, Good Magic and Tapit, 4; Life Is Good, Nyquist and Uncle Mo, 2; Bolt d'Oro, Ghostzapper, Jackie's Warrior, Justify and Mandaloun, 1.
Corniche Catching the Eye
Having entertained mares commensurate with his fee, Flightline is demonstrably being backed to replicate the sensational talent he showed (albeit only for a few minutes in total) on the track. Like any other rookie, however, he will start with a clean slate once those babies get to the gate.
No point rehearsing yet again the perils and paradoxes created by the commercial market's obsession with fresh blood. For now, let's just have a look at the winners and losers in what-too often-proves their only meaningful examination: whether or not they can make a fast buck for a breeder.
Table C admittedly contains one or two deeply contentious columns. There's limited value, for instance, in citing how a sire's yearling median stands up to conception fee, when you must pay the same to board a mare and foal, and to prep a yearling, regardless of whether you have paid $200,000 for Flightline or $7,500 for one of the less glamorous names. On that basis, the cheaper stallions jolly well better be achieving a higher multiple! But you can factor all that in.
For the little it may be worth, we've also noted the percentage difference between weanling and yearling averages, as a potential steer on the kind of physical progress that a pinhooker might look for. Again, there are obvious caveats. Taking a median from just eight (extremely lucrative) weanlings is hardly an adequate baseline for Life Is Good, whose yearlings are doing all they should at market. Conversely, a sire who sent some disappointing weanlings to market last fall can achieve a major percentage improvement without beginning to pay off the keep and sales prep.
All that said, I think you can legitimately glimpse one or two nuggets of promise. Corniche, in particular, deserves some attention after achieving a pretty stellar median of $150,000. His weanlings had hit a median of $80,000, so his yearlings have been building nicely from what was already a solid base. These are encouraging returns for a horse standing this year at just $15,000, half his opening fee.
He also found a home for no fewer than 55 of 62 yearlings offered. That's another slippery index, in that RNAs sometimes reflect the high opinion of breeders, whereas some sires process a higher percentage because people can't get the stock off their hands quick enough. But his yields suggest that Corniche simply had plenty of people eager to meet the expectations of vendors.
His family has some pretty left-field seeding, and the horses he beat in a brief career subsequently obtained limited resonance on his behalf. But we've seen all that before, with successful stallions, and it will be interesting to see whether these straws in the wind lead to anything more meaningful once Corniche starts to send his first troops into battle next year.
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