Several horses clustered near the bottom of the “Road to the GI Kentucky Derby” are eligible for the race based on points, but their connections have not committed to the Derby. So this list differs slightly from the official qualifying rankings with respect to a few horses who are currently outside the top 20 points leaders and looking to get in.
1) COMMANDMENT (c, Into Mischief–Sippican Harbor, by Orb). O-Wathnan Racing; B-Lee Pokoik (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Sales history: $485,000 RNA Wlg '23 FTKNOV; $475,000 RNA Ylg '24 FTSAUG; $500,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-0, $1,017,339. Last start: WON Mar. 28 GI Curlin Florida Derby.
Pros: Commandment is all about reliability and sturdiness, delivering no-nonsense wins despite routinely having to adapt his running style to overcome less-than-ideal tactical circumstances.
This Brad Cox-trained son of Into Mischief ($485,000 RNA FTKNOV; $475,000 RNA FTSAUG; $500,000 KEESEP) has won four straight.
His prep path to Louisville includes a victory by a nose in the three-way GI Florida Derby photo, a race that was deeper in talent than any other stakes on the 2025-26 qualifying schedule.
Cons: It's difficult to knock a colt who has just paired Beyer Speed Figures of 101 and 100. The last 10 winning Beyers for the Derby have all been between 100 and 105, so Commandment is already across that threshold.
But horses coming off last-race, triple-digit Beyers aren't the ones prevailing in the Derby of late.
In each of the last five years, the horses who crossed the finish wire first in the Derby all attained their respective 100-to-105 Beyers by leapfrogging their last-race numbers by double-digit points: Sovereignty 104 (+12), Mystik Dan 100 (+11), Mage 105 (+11), Rich Strike 101 (+17) and Medina Spirit 102 (+12).
2) RENEGADE (c, Into Mischief–Spice Is Nice, by Curlin). O-Robert Low, Lawana L. Low, and Repole Stable; B-Robert & Lawana Low (KY); T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales history: $975,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-2-2-1, $1,031,500. Last start: WON Mar. 28 GI Arkansas Derby.
Pros: Continuing that Beyer Speed Figure discussion, Renegade does fit the pattern of a “jump-up” type of colt ready to break the 100+ barrier. His lifetime Beyer pattern stands at 57-87-82-93-98.
This $975,000 KEESEP son of Into Mischief from Todd Pletcher's barn rates highly based on the visually arresting quality of his far-turn moves.
Additionally, Renegade has put up final fractions in the late stages of his races (closing sixteenth in :5.97 in the Sam F. Davis Stakes and final furlong in :11.84 in the GI Arkansas Derby) that exceed the stretch-run clockings of every other sophomore contender this season.
Cons: In the Davis and Arkansas Derby, Renegade gave up ground on the far turn yet won decisively. But it's an open question as to how much of his dominance was attributable to the competition being below what he'll face in Louisville.
I would have liked to have seen at least one strong race from Renegade breaking from an inside post or by closing up the rail.
3) FURTHER ADO (c, Gun Runner–Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa). 'TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard'. O-Spendthrift Farm LLC; B-John C. Oxley (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Sales history: $275,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP; $550,000 2yo '25 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GISW, $1,146,328. Last start: WON Apr. 4 GI Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.
Pros: With a 20-length, two-turn maiden blowout in his third lifetime start and an 11-length dismantling of the GI Blue Grass Stakes, the light-on-his-feet Further Ado has stamped himself as a colt who can deliver thorough clock-cleanings of his competition.
This Brad Cox trainee by Gun Runner ($275,000 KEESEP; $550,000 OBSAPR) appears to be peaking at the right time. His 92-Beyer second in the GIII Tampa Bay Derby was notable considering he wasn't fully cranked coming off a 3 1/2-month layoff, yet he was the only contender to force the issue up front then stick around at the finish.
In the Blue Grass, Further Ado stalked in third, gradually built momentum with an in-hand run through the far turn, then kicked away at the quarter pole, running up the score with a 106-Beyer blowout.
Cons: Despite a 3-1-1 record from six lifetime starts, with the last three in Grade I, II and III stakes, Further Ado has only once finished ahead of another horse who has won a graded stakes.
Further Ado | Coady Media
4) THE PUMA (c, Essential Quality–Eve of War, by Declaration of War). O-OGMA Investments LLC, JR Ranch and High Step Racing LLC; B-Hidden Brook Farm & Brian Kahn (KY); T-Gustavo Delgado. Sales history: $95,000 RNA Ylg '24 KEESEP; $150,000 2yo '25 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 4-1-2-1, $442,280. Last start: 2nd Mar. 28 GI Florida Derby.
Pros: Since Jan. 10, The Puma has beaten Further Ado by three-quarters of a length, lost by a nose to Commandment, finished third behind Renegade, and has once beaten and been beaten by 'TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard' Chief Wallabee (Constitution).
This Gustavo Delgado trainee most recently ran a sharp second in the Florida Derby.
The Puma's sustained rally enabled him to get first run at the favorite, then, after putting that rival away, he had to dig down deep to try and fend off serious late bids from both Commandment and Chief Wallabee. He was ahead of Commandment one jump before the wire and one jump after it in a tight photo-finish.
Cons: The Puma ($95,000 RNA KEESEP; $150,000 OBSAPR) toured the track four wide in both those stakes, and giving up that much ground can be too costly to overcome in the Kentucky Derby, especially coming off a taxing final prep.
The Puma's sire, Essential Quality, is a prime example. The undefeated juvenile champ was consistently kept outside in his races, and went off favored in the 2021 Derby off a demanding win in the Blue Grass. He got parked wide on both turns, then had no spark for the stretch, finishing a best-of-the-rest fourth.
5) POTENTE (c, Into Mischief–Sweet Sting, by Awesome Again). O-Speedway Stables LLC; B-Pam & Martin Wygod (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $2,400,000 Ylg '24 FTSAUG. Lifetime Rrecord: GSW & GISP, 3-2-1-0, $262,000. Last start: 2nd Apr. 4 GI Santa Anita Derby.
Pros: How about 20-1 on a $2.4 million FTSAUG colt by Into Mischief who is just now starting to look dialed in for Bob Baffert, a seven-time (one DQ) Derby winning trainer?
Potente doesn't need to go directly to the front like in his maiden sprint win or his second in the GI Santa Anita Derby. Applying reasonable pressure while maintaining first-flight positioning would make Potente very dangerous turning for home. His lifetime Beyer arc of 79-89-95 suggests a triple-digit top is within his grasp.
Cons: The entire SoCal contingent of Derby aspirants looked much stronger last fall heading into the Breeders' Cup than they do now. The four maidens Potente beat in his Jan. 31 debut have since gone a collective 0-for-6.
6) EMERGING MARKET (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Wild Empress, by Empire Maker). 'TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard'. O-Klaravich Stables, Inc.; B-Stoneriggs Farm (KY); T-Chad C. Brown. Sales history: $185,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $618,880. Last start: WON Mar. 21 GII Louisiana Derby.
Pros: You have to buy into the not-yet-fully-formed “phenom” vision of Emerging Market to make a cogent case for him winning the Derby in just his third lifetime start.
But the charismatic aplomb of this $185,000 KEESEP colt's first two victories does make that convention-defying paradigm seem reach-out-and-grab-it possible.
This Chad Brown-trained son of Candy Ride (Arg)'s dive-bomb stretch attacks in his maiden win and the 1 3/16-mile GII Louisiana Derby have been punctuated by sustained intensity. Emerging Market has twice gone shoulder-to-shoulder with rivals before drilling them into defeat in the shadow of the wire.
Cons: The angle of exactly two starts before the Derby has produced only one winner in the 151-year history of the race (Leonatus in 1883). It's such a rare occurrence that that prep path has only been attempted six times since 1937.
7) DANON BOURBON (c, Maxfield–Wild Ridge, by Tapit). O-Danox Co Ltd; B-Blue Heaven Farm (KY); T-Manabu Ikezoe. Sales history: $450,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-3-0-0, $222,733. Last start: WON Mar. 28 Fukuryu Stakes (allowance).
Pros: We've seen both front-running and prowl-and-pounce tactics from this undefeated $450,000 KEESEP colt by Maxfield from trainer Manabu Ikezoe's stable. This muscular prospect has racked up three wins over 1800 meters (8.95 furlongs) and 1900 meters (9.44 furlongs) at Kyoto and Nakayama.
Danon Bourbon's decisive 3 1/2-length score as the 11-10 fave in the muddy Mar. 28 $227,900 Fukuryu Stakes win established a record clocking for the history of that race, which is run under allowance conditions.
Cons: Even as the sport becomes more globalized, it's still difficult to get a true read on how Japanese imports (especially those with only three lifetime starts) stack up against American competition.
Danon Bourbon has started only twice at age three. In the past nine years, horses with only two sophomore starts prior to the Kentucky Derby have been a collective 1-for-54, with Sovereignty in 2025 the lone winning exception.
Danon Bourbon | Horsephotos/Tomoya Moriuchi
8) CHIEF WALLABEE (c, Constitution–A La Lucie, by Medaglia d'Oro). 'TDN Rising Star presented by Hagyard'. O/B-Mike & Katherine Ball (KY); T-William I. Mott. Lifetime Record: GSP, 3-1-1-1, $216,600. Last start: 3rd Mar. 28 GI Florida Derby.
Pros: This homebred son of Constitution from Bill Mott's stable is currently 21st on the qualifying points list. He got a useful learning experience while not fully throttled in the Florida Derby. A bet on him in the Kentucky Derby is a wager that Chief Wallabee will show a more focused response when cued to quicken.
This colt raced covered up behind the top two in the Florida Derby, but got locked and boxed at the rail. Junior Alvarado swung four wide for the drive, but after he had to yank Chief Wallabee off heels in upper stretch, he never quite regained his momentum (although Chief Wallabee did re-engage when Commandment roared alongside a sixteenth out).
Chief Wallabee ended up third, beaten just a half-length, and he pursued Commandment with zeal in the gallop-out. His lifetime Beyers are 89-100-99.
Cons: Since 1900, 29 horses have tried the Derby off exactly three lifetime starts. Only four three-start horses have won: Regret (1915), Big Brown (2008), Justify (2018) and Mage (2023).
Of the remaining 25, only one finished better than seventh in the Derby: Curlin, third in 2007.
9) PAVLOVIAN (c, Pavel–Mandy's Grace, by Bellamy Road). O/B-Reddam Racing, LLC (CA); T-Doug F. O'Neill. Lifetime Record: GSP, 10-2-4-1, $613,450.
Pros: Part of the glowing writeup I gave No. 6-ranked Emerging Market is predicated on believing that Pavlovian was a much more formidable foe than his 21-1 odds indicated in the Louisiana Derby.
This homebred for Reddam Racing (a winner of the Derby twice with trainer Doug O'Neill), has already raced 10 times. He spent seven of his first eight races competing at the California-bred level, with six of those starts in sprints.
But since O'Neill put blinkers back on, this gray gutted out a win by a nose on a tight bob when running down the pacemaker in the 1 1/16-mile Sunland Derby (87 Beyer), and he set a brisk pace then clawed back the lead from Emerging Market before being outlasted by a head over 1 3/16 miles at Fair Grounds (90 Beyer).
Cons: A big part of Pavlovian's appeal is that he has a shot at establishing the tempo in what appears to be a pace-deficient Derby.
But if he ends up getting a tough gate draw or gets sucked into an intemperate duel before the race is half over, his generous 52-1 odds from Pool 6 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) won't seem like much of an overlay.
10) WONDER DEAN (JPN), (c, Dee Majesty {Jpn}–Wonder Siang Praw {Jpn}, by Wonder Acute {Jpn}). O/B-Yoshinari Yamamoto; T-Daisuke Takayanagi. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-2-2-0, $770,541.
Pros: Wonder Dean, a Japanese homebred by Group 1-winning turfer Dee Majesty (Jpn), is a smaller-framed colt with a distinctive white nose who has settled in early at Churchill, having arrived stateside shortly after his 2 1/2-length win in the Mar. 28 G2 UAE Derby.
He built momentum from a half-mile out to reel in lone pacemaker over the 1900-meter Meydan distance.
Cons: Since 2000, 15 winners of the UAE Derby have gone on to compete in the Kentucky Derby. Other than the third-place try by Forever Young (whose jockey Ryusei Sakai will jump aboard Wonder Dean for the Derby), none of the UAE Derby winners have managed better than sixth.
11) INCREDIBOLT (c, Bolt d'Oro–Sapphire Spitfire, by Awesome Again). O-Pin Oak Stud LLC; B-Deann Baer & Greg Baer DVM (KY); T-Riley Mott. Sales history: $75,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-0-0, $498,681. Last start: WON Mar. 14 Virginia Derby.
Pros: Incredibolt ($75,000 KEESEP) is a wild card with some upside, although I'd want a better price than the 22-1 odds at which he closed in Pool 6 of the KDFW to take a flyer on him.
At his best, this lean, powerful son of Bolt d'Oro from Riley Mott's outfit is adept at closing from behind while wide, like when he won the GIII Street Sense Stakes (82 Beyer), or by firing up the fence after stalking, as in his four-length takedown of the one-turn, nine-furlong Virginia Derby (88 Beyer).
Cons: On his worst days, like in the GIII Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream when he ran sixth and last, beaten 25 1/4 lengths, Incredibolt is capable of running poorly without any obvious excuse.
Incredibolt | Coady Media
12) FULLEFFORT (c, 3, Liam's Map–Callmethesqueeze, by Awesome Again). O-St. Elias Stable & Starlight Racing; B-Athens Woods LLC (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Sales history: $425,000 Ylg '24 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-2-1, $694,115. Last start: WON Mar. 21 GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks.
Pros: Fulleffort, a 3-for-7 gray son of Liam's map, is described by trainer Brad Cox as “a bigger, stronger version of himself than he was last summer” coming out of his 94-Beyer rallying win over Tapeta in the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks.
This $425,000 FTSAUG colt will be making his first start on dirt in the Derby. At age two he won maiden and allowance turf races at Kentucky Downs and Keeneland.
Fulleffort is a half-sibling to Power Squeeze, the victress of the 2024 Alabama Stakes over 10 furlongs on dirt.
Cons: Even though Animal Kingdom (2011) and Rich Strike (2022) proved that Turfway's premier stakes can be a springboard to a blanket of roses, the remaining participants out of the Ruby (or its differently named predecessors) have been a collective 0-for-25 in the Derby since that stakes was first run over a synthetic surface in 2006.
13) GOLDEN TEMPO (c, Curlin–Carrumba, by Bernardini). 'TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard'. O/B-Phipps Stable & St. Elias Stables, LLC (KY); T-Cherie DeVaux. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-0-2, $333,000. Last start: 3rd Mar. 21 GII Louisiana Derby.
Pros: Golden Tempo, a Phipps Stable and St. Elias Stables homebred son of Curlin out of a Bernardini mare, won the GIII Lecomte Stakes in last-to-first fashion.
He was closing the gap when third, but still six lengths behind, the now-sidelined but formerly No. 1-ranked Paladin (Gun Runner) in the GII Risen Star Stakes.
Trainer Cherie DeVaux tried blinkers for the first time in the Louisiana Derby, in which Golden Tempo got pinched at the break but came surging home to get third, beaten a length by Emerging Market. His Beyers are now 78-81-84-88.
Cons: Six weeks between a final prep and the Derby has a low strike rate. Not counting the pandemic year's 2020 Derby in September, in the past 70 years, the only horse to cross the finish wire first in the Derby off any gap longer than 35 days was Animal Kingdom, who won 42 days out in 2011. Needles in 1956 was the last six-week-layoff winner before that.
14) SILENT TACTIC (c, Tacitus–Magical Sign, by Gun Runner). O-John C. Oxley; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Mark E. Casse. Sales history: $60,000 Ylg '24 FTKOCT; $500,000 2yo'25 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 6-2-4-0, $1,051,922. Last start: 2nd Mar. 28 GI Arkansas Derby.
Pros: Between 2011 and 2020, the first horse across the line in every Kentucky Derby had won its previous start. For the last five years, no Derby winner has won his final prep.
Perhaps that trend bodes well for Silent Tactic ($60,000 FTKOCT; $500,000 OBSAPR), who has never been worse than second in six tries, all in races at 1 1/16 miles or longer.
This Mark Casse-trained son of Tacitus won the GIII Southwest Stakes by 3 1/4 lengths at 12-1 odds (88 Beyer), having no trouble bulling his way from last in a 12-horse field.
Cons: Since his Southwest win two months ago (from which six other horses have now raced back, with none hitting the board), Silent Tactic has plateaued, earning 91 Beyers when second in both the GII Rebel Stakes and the Arkansas Derby.
15) SO HAPPY (c, Runhappy–So Cunning, by Blame). O-Norman Stables LLC and Saints or Sinners; B-Leverett S. Miller (KY); T-Mark Glatt. Sales history: $12,000 Wlg '23 KEENOV; $20,000 Ylg '24 FTKOCT; $150,000 2yo '25 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 4-3-0-1, $480,000. Last start: WON Apr. 4 GI Santa Anita Derby.
Pros: A winner in three of his four races and only beaten 2 1/4 lengths in his lone defeat, the Mark Glatt-trained So Happy has tactical speed and a 100-Beyer win over nine furlongs.
Beyond his 7-1 upset in the Santa Anita Derby, So Happy ($12,000 KEENOV; $20,000 FTKOCT; $150,000 OBSMAR) also hit the winner's circle in his 6 1/2-fulrong maiden debut at 38-1 odds and in the seven-furlong GII San Vicente Stakes.
Cons: Although the Blame and Seeking the Gold influences on the female side lend stoutness to his pedigree, this son of 2015 champion sprinter Runhappy could find it challenging to make an impact over 10 furlongs.
So Happy | Benoit photo
16) ALBUS (c, Yaupon–Adream, by Bernardini). O-Pin Oak Stud LLC; B-Susan Casner (KY); T-Riley Mott. Sales history: $320,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-0-1, $436,288. Last start: WON Apr. 4 GII Wood Memorial Stakes.
Pros: Congrats if you locked in Albus (Yaupon) at 173-1 odds in Pool 6 of the KDFW, which closed 38 minutes prior to this $320,000 KEESEP colt's 11-1 upset in the GII Wood Memorial Stakes.
That's a sweet ticket to be holding on a could-be-anything prospect who, like So Happy above, has a sprinter-over-stayer pedigree. This May 15 foal just now seems to be figuring things out for trainer Riley Mott.
Cons: The Wood Memorial was slow by any metric. The nine-furlong clocking of 1:51.71 was 0.74 seconds shy of what 3-year-old fillies ran in the GIII Gazelle Stakes 40 minutes earlier. Albus's 83 Beyer is the co-lowest winning Beyer in any nine-furlong Derby prep in at least the last three years
17) RIGHT TO PARTY (c, Constitution–Havin' a Party, by Emcee). O-Chester Broman, Sr.; B-Tony Holmes & Timothy C. Thornton (KY); T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales history: $325,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-1-1-2, $230,200. Last start: 2nd Apr. 4 GII Wood Memorial Stakes.
Pros: Never off the board in four lifetime starts, Right to Party, a $325,000 KEESEP colt by Constitution from Kenny McPeek's barn, saved ground and rolled home from next-to-last to snag second by a nose in the Wood Memorial.
Cons: The Wood's fourth-quarter split of :26.37 and its final furlong of :13.30, into which Right to Party made his late-race move, were the slowest and second-slowest such fractions among the 10 points-awarding stakes at 1 1/8 miles in 2025-26.
18) SIX SPEED (c, Not This Time–Browse, by Medaglia d'Oro). O-Brunetti Dugan Stables, Black Type Thoroughbreds, Steve Adkisson, Swinbank Stables; B-KatieRich Farms (KY); T-Bhupat Seemar. Sales history: $50,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP; 220,000gns 2yo '25 TATBRE. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-1, $402,183. Last start: 2nd Mar. 28 G2 UAE Derby.
Pros: Six Speed ($50,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP; 220,000gns 2yo '25 TATBRE), a Not This Time-sired colt who wintered in Dubai, was purchased privately by his current ownership group back in January.
He won the G3 UAE 2000 Guineas by five lengths in a field of 16, then led for as long as he could as the breakaway pacemaker in the UAE Derby before getting reeled in by Wonder Dean, staying on for second in an 11-horse field.
Cons: As trainer Bhupat Seemar pointed out after this colt's runner-up Meydan race, “He doesn't help himself. He's got so much speed, but he needs to learn to relax.”
19) INTREPIDO (r, Maximus Mischief–Overly Indulgent, by Pleasantly Perfect). 'TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard'. O-Dutch Girl Holdings LLC and Irving Ventures LLC; B-Sierra Fria Farm LLC (KY); T-Jeff Mullins. Sales history: $30,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP; $385,000 2yo '25 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-2-1-0, $342,800. Last start: 4th Apr. 4 GI Santa Anita Derby.
Pros: This ridgling by Maximus Mischief ($30,000 KEESEP; $385,000 OBSAPR) is ranked 23rd on the qualifying list as of this writing, but his connections have indicated they would like to take a shot at the Derby if defections occur.
Intrepido, who routinely runs Beyers in the 80s, is trying to regain the form that put him in the winner's circle for the GI American Pharoah Stakes last October. He was most recently fourth, beaten 10 lengths, in the Santa Anita Derby.
Cons: Intrepido would go into the Derby having not won a race in seven months. Rich Strike (2022) and Super Saver (2010) are the last two horses who crossed the finish wire first in the Derby after not winning a sophomore race prior to the first Saturday in May.
20) BRAVARO (c, Upstart–Opera Star, by Tamarkuz). O-Albert Ciuffetelli, Stephanie S Brennan, Shining Stables LLC, BAG Racing Stables & Paul Braverman; B-Stepanie Baltzan (NY); T-Saffie A Joseph Jr. Sales history: $57,000 RNA Ylg '24 SARAUG; $95,000 RNA 2yo '25 EASMAY. Lifetime record; GSP, 5-2-1-0, $272,700. Last start: 4th Apr. 4 GII Wood Memorial Stakes.
Pros: Bravaro, at No. 26 on the Derby qualifying list, is another who is outside looking in, points-wise. He started his career with two victories against New York-breds, and his best effort in an open-company stakes was a second-place try in the GIII Holy Bull Stakes back in January.
Cons: With blinkers added, this Saffie Joseph, Jr. trainee he was fourth, beaten 2 1/2 lengths, behind three double-digit longshots in the Wood. He exits the slowest nine-furlong prep this season and hasn't hit the winner's circle in six months.
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