California-breds have long been a staple of the state's racing product. Since 2014, CA-breds have represented between 45% and 50% of all starters at Thoroughbred race meets. Since the consolidation of racing in the south of the state, that trend has continued.
From the start of the Santa Anita winter meeting through mid-March, Cal-breds made up about 47% of all individual starters, which includes both open races and those restricted to northern trainers. But with last year's foal crop (now yearlings) currently sitting at just below 1000 amid a breeding industry that has been waning for two decades—in line with national trends—California faces a decline in Cal-bred participants over the next few years.
Modeling performed for the TDN using available mares-bred and foal crop numbers, along with existing trend lines (more on this in a bit), suggests that there will be a combined 290 fewer Cal-bred runners competing in California between 2026 through 2028.
This could be a conservative estimate and doesn't factor in a possible larger-than-anticipated decline in mares bred in 2025, or a smaller-than-expected foal crop this year.
What does this mean to California's consolidated industry? It depends how you look at it.
The TDN sent its numbers to the California Thoroughbred Breeders Association (CTBA), the Thoroughbred Owners of California (TOC), executives for Santa Anita, Del Mar and Los Alamitos, along with the California Horse Racing Board (CHRB) and the California Thoroughbred Trainers (CTT).
The responses have been a mixed bag. Some declined to respond. Among those that did, several suggested that shrinking Cal-bred numbers could mean a further decline in overall races carded in California, for example, to maintain field sizes.
Another suggestion was that, under this new but evolving single-circuit structure, the number of Cal-bred races run in the south could actually increase.
The projected Cal-bred numbers are a concern, however, “and if anybody says that it's not concerning or is not an issue is putting their heads in the sand,” said Scott Chaney, the CHRB's executive director. “A logical question then is, 'what is the extent of this impact?'”
Important Numbers
(NOTE: The TDN's calculations are based on historical DRF chart data, along with Jockey Club and CTBA foal crop and mares-bred data)
The 3-year-old and 4-year-old Cal-bred runners currently competing in California's new consolidated program were foaled in 2021 and 2022, when the foal crops were 1323 and 1315 respectively.
In 2023, the California foal crop was 1191. According to the CTBA, the foal crop from 2024 currently stands at 983, though the organization said it expects the final number to eventually be nearer the 1000 mark.
To project what all this could mean over the next few years, the TDN's calculations used the following trend lines:
- Approximately 73% of the annual Cal-bred foal crop that get to the races make a start in California.
- Roughly 29% of the Cal-bred foal crop race as two-year-olds.
- An 8.6% annual decrease in mares bred in California.
The crunched numbers suggest a combined 290 fewer Cal-breds competing in California between 2026 and 2028—what works out at 82 fewer Cal-breds in 2026, 93 in 2027, and 115 in 2028.
If the same trends continue, the loss annually of on average 97 Cal-bred starters amounts to about 5% of the overall Cal-bred starters each of those years.
This doesn't seem an insurmountable number to overcome, if indeed California's leaders see the current program as a baseline from which to build.
If that's the case, two key questions arise. One is this: what if these projected numbers are either an undercount or an overcount?
The TDN gave each of the key organizations an opportunity to digest and to dispute the numbers, and to share any comparable data of their own. None said they had run their own projections.
The second question is this: what coordinated strategy does California's leaders have in place to address the impending Cal-bred inventory problem?
Mares bred, foal crop
Earlier this year, the mood among California breeders about their plans for this year varied considerably. Some said they feared that lack of racing opportunities will drive significant contraction at the lower end of the market especially, while in some quarters they were optimistic that years of declining trends will now lead to a period of economic stasis or even tentative growth.
Sarah Andrew photo
One of those interviewed was Tom Clark, the owner of Rancho San Miguel and a mainstay of the state breeding industry, who predicted a one-third drop-off in mares bred this year.
Reached this week, Clark said he's now expecting a roughly 25% decline in mares bred. Having recently put Rancho San Miguel on the market, Clark explained he's not seeking to liquidate his stock but rather to hold out for someone with “vision and passion” to assume the reins in his stead.
Given the ongoing nature of the current breeding season, CTBA president Doug Burge said he doesn't yet have hard numbers for this year's foal crop, nor the overall numbers of mares bred.
“I'm getting mixed answers,” said Burge, about mares-bred numbers. “I'm getting some of the bigger farms telling me they're breeding the same. And then I've got some farms, particularly in the north, telling me they're down.”
According to the TDN's calculation, if existing trend lines from the past decade continue for the next few years, the foal crop in 2030 will be 607.
“That's low. We're not going to get that low. If we get that low, I mean, there won't be…” said Burge, letting the thought trail off.
Is there a baseline Cal-bred foal-crop threshold? Burge believes that number to be somewhere between 850 and 950. If the foal crop threatens to drop below the 850 number, “we would stop the bleeding before that happens,” he said.
Burge said that he also believes that, while there will be a drop off in mares-bred again this year, from next year onwards, California's long-declining foal-crop will plateau. “I don't see this thing dropping off every year going forward,” he said.
What drives this expectation? Burge pointed to several factors that he believed were signs of such a stemming of the tide.
He said he expected the number of mares foaling in California bred to non-California stallions to remain stable. California breeder and stallion awards also increased between 2023 and 2024, and are expected to increase again this year, he said.
“The Cal-bred incentive program is still very strong,” he said, highlighting similar sentiments shared by major owner-breeder Terry Lovingier in February.
According to Burge, there are routine conversations “weekly, if not daily” between the various stakeholder groups about “how we can further expand the incentives for people to continue to invest in racing and breeding.”
Burge highlighted a recently-run $12,500 Cal-bred claiming race—which previously would have been restricted to northern horses but was opened up to all eligible Cal-breds.
“In the end, there were 14 horses entered. You were accommodating horses from the north, but you're also doing the best you can to keep the southern horses at the bottom level in the circuit as well,” said Burge. “And we will continue to look at how we can expand those opportunities.”
Possible Fixes
In his March 2024 letter to the CHRB threatening the closure of Santa Anita if the board continued to accommodate sustained racing in the North, former TSG executive Craig Fravel said that a consolidated program in the South could include a fourth day of weekly racing at Santa Anita.
Santa Anita | Benoit
The projected Cal-bred numbers strongly suggest that, without some large and unexpected influx of horses from out-of-state, that fourth day of racing is a pipedream, at least over the next few years.
Bill Nader, TOC president and CEO, discussed both the idea of further cuts to the racing calendar, and of using the current program as a baseline from which to grow. “It's still to me in early days,” he said, when asked about what the program will look like moving forward.
In discussing the ramifications from what the 2023, '24 and '25 mares-bred and foal crop numbers mean for the future state horse inventory, Nader chose to largely concentrate upon the recent positive trends out of the new model.
These positives include increases in handle, field size, and ADW and brick-and-mortar wagering both in-state and beyond, he said. The TOC's efforts to better manage CAW wagering also appear to have helped bolster the purse account.
These upward trend lines occur in the midst of what Nader said is a roughly 40% decline in races carded annually compared to last year.
“Everything is trending positively. So, for the first time in a long time, there's a bit of optimism,” said Nader, who indicated possible new tax incentives for breeders and owners.
For this positive momentum to continue, however, California needs runners—and Cal-bred runners especially.
“If folks think, 'oh, there's consolidation, purses are up in California—our work here is done,' that is a complete misunderstanding of the situation,” said Chaney, describing the biggest issue facing California as one of three things: “Purses, purses, and purses.”
Over the past year, there have been (so far unsuccessful) efforts to install Historic Horse Racing (HHR) machines at Santa Anita, and to pass legislation to accommodate this form of gambling in the state. Other ways to augment purses include direct government supplements, similar in effect to that enacted in New York and Maryland, said Chaney.
“I think something will happen because it has to,” said Chaney, when asked how likely it was that purse supplements materialize in California. “There is no other choice for the horse racing industry here.”
Strategic Planning
While the projected numbers paint a worrying landscape for the industry over the next few years, forewarned is forearmed. There's still time for those responsible for the lives and livelihoods of thousands of trainers, breeders, farm and backstretch workers in California to devise a coordinated action plan, with a set of realistic targets against which the success or failure of those efforts can be gauged.
Del Mar | Benoit
Santa Anita and Los Alamitos declined to speak for the story about what the projected Cal-bred numbers mean for their businesses. The Del Mar Thoroughbred Club (DMTC) wrote a short statement.
“Maintaining a viable state breeding program over the longer term is crucially important as Del Mar and other stakeholders work through the new single-circuit structure here and we are committed to providing opportunities and incentives for California-breds,” the DMTC wrote.
CTT executive director Alan Balch offered a far more critical assessment of the situation in an emailed statement.
“There's an old quote I've always believed in: 'the pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails,'” wrote Balch.
“In California, racing's sails have needed very serious adjusting for a long, long time: it's called strategic planning. For at least 15 years, the tracks, breeders, owners, and trainers, haven't had a single organized, serious meeting to address the threats which have been clearly visible for over 25 years.
“Successful strategy in any industry depends on reliable, objective, truthful information. For at least 15 years, CTT and Del Mar have jointly funded detailed, objective, annual data collection. Our increasing reliance on California-breds hasn't been hidden to anyone paying attention. Now the peril we face is literally ominous, since breeding itself is so future-oriented.”
Balch added: “Only with an urgent, immediate, serious commitment to joint strategic planning—involving how to persuade the State of California to help reverse the present perils to its agricultural economy—could we hope to mitigate what we're all facing.”
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