California-breds have long been the backbone of California racing. Since 2014, they've represented between 45% and 50% of all starters at Thoroughbred race meets in the state. Over half of all horses currently stabled in Southern California tracks are understood to be Cal-breds.
A shrinking foal crop in the state, however, means that racing secretaries will have to rely on fewer of them than is currently the case over the next few years.
Modeling performed for the TDN suggests there will be a combined 290 fewer Cal-bred runners competing in California between 2026 through 2028.
This is a tough time for the state's remaining breeders as they attempt to forge a commercial footprint in a region with high training costs and purses that can't compete with states propped up by supplemental purse incomes.
For the current consolidated model to have a healthy future, however, the number of Cal-breds needs to pick up. With all this in mind, the TDN recently asked some of the state's smaller breeders and other figures this question:
What key changes would encourage you breed more Cal-Breds?
John and Allegra Ernst
At the height of their breeding venture, the Ernsts had about 13 mares. Now, they have eight mares, four in retirement, while the Ernsts bred only one of the remaining mares this year.
John and Allegra Ernst | courtesy of the Ernst Family
“The other ones we could breed them, but with everything that's going on, we're not doing it,” said John.
What would incentivize the Ernsts to breed more Cal-breds, they said, is an idea they first floated the over 10 years ago with the Thoroughbred Owners of California (TOC), giving Cal-bred owners a minimum $1,000 per-start fee for any race.
“In other words, any owner of any Cal-bred should be able to get $1,000 for every start they make,” said John.
This start-fee money, say the Ernsts, would be deducted from the purse, with the remaining balance split the usual way between the finishers.
The way the Ernsts describe it is as a self-fulfilling prophesy, with greater participation and larger field sizes leading to bigger handle and larger purses.
“And then in the future, we can push it up to $1,500–maybe even $2,000 per-start,” said John.
“There's incentive for the owners to actually recover some money. And if they can actually run their horse a couple times a month–even if it's not that much–we have a chance of at least recovering some of what we've lost,” said John.
“This way, we could see some returns, encourage people that are like us to stay in the business, and encourage other new owners to say, 'hey, I'll go into this and even though I might lose some money, I won't lose as much,'” he added.
Adrian Gonzalez
As a leading consignor, Gonzalez's business revolves around the sales. As such, he said that changes could be made to the California yearling sale (hosted in September) to make it more appetizing to buyers.
Adrian Gonzalez | courtesy of Adrian Gonzalez
“We have our entire livelihood come down to one day as a commercial breeder, and it couldn't come at a worse time,” said Gonzalez, saying that its proximity to the marathon Keeneland sale hurts its success.
“Going after 4,000 some-odd other yearlings selling, I just don't believe there's an appetite among California buyers to bend,” he said.
Instead, Gonzalez floated the idea of a yearling sale during the Del Mar meet, during what he described as the “peak of enthusiasm for racing” in the state. “When you're down there for the summer, everybody's excited about it, and what better time to sell yearlings,” he said.
Otherwise, “we'd like to build our own sales venue and have a date that's conducive to working for the California circuit, and not trying to just work around another sale company's calendar,” said Gonzalez, who said he has about 60 mares on his farm this year.
The Cal-bred program could also be modified to better cater to turf horses, including the institution of new 2-year-old turf stakes races for Cal-breds, said Gonzalez. As Gonzalez pointed out, there are eight juvenile stakes on the dirt for Cal-breds, and none on the turf.
“Obviously, they can run in open races, but that's a taller task,” said Gonzalez, about smart Cal-bred juvenile turf runners.
“As a stallion owner and manager, the stats were trying to produce are in black type horses, and we have a limited amount of races for those [on the turf for Cal-breds],” he added.
Harris Auerbach
The last mare that Auerbach bred in California was in 2019–this from around 25 mares in the state at the height of his involvement.
A former vice-chair of the CTBA, Auerbach said the industry here in California–as well as nationally–needs to start thinking “less provincially.”
What that could mean for California breeders, Auerbach said, is a multi-state breeding program, consolidating what remains of the industries in the nation's Western and South-Western regions.
“California as you know is on an island. Maybe California should pair up with Arizona and New Mexico and Oregon and Washington and British Columbia, and create a regional breeding program that could be of benefit to all the states,” said Auerbach.
“We could make it so that all the horses could be eligible to run in races of all different conditions, all different types,” Auerbach said, calling the necessary legislative changes to get such a venture off the ground as large but not insurmountable. “It should have happened a decade ago.”
Joe Lacombe
San Diego-based Lacombe has six mares, five of them bred this year (and four of them have foaled).
Like Gonzalez, Lacombe sees California's one remaining yearling sale as the key focus of reform to lure more customers, especially local trainers and owners who have migrated to out-of-state sales to fill their stalls.
“We need to get more value at the sales,” said Lacombe, who said the median sales price is way too low for it to be viable to commercial breeders. The median at last year's Fasig-Tipton Fall Yearlings and Horses of Racing Age sale was $15,000.
“No one's going to keep doing this if they lose all the time,” he added.
One idea to boost participation at the sale, said Lacombe, could be a tweak to the Cal-bred bonus program for maiden winners, increasing the bonus amount for those who purchase a horse at the sale above that for home-breds.
“Now, somebody who breeds a homebred should get something for winning that race. But at the same time, you should pay more for someone who brought a horse, so there's a differentiation there, that you can make more if you buy at the sale,” said Lacombe.
There could also be better coordination between the racing office and the horsemens' organizations to create better racing opportunities for Cal-breds, said Lacombe.
He says he understands the fix racing secretaries are in–if they write more Cal-bred races, they're going to struggle to fill the open races. “It's a real horse population problem,” said Lacombe.
“But look at other state programs–I think there are others that are more in tune with their local-breds,” he said. “Racing and breeding needs to work hand-in-hand.”
Dr. William Gray
After breeding 27 mares last year, Northern-California based Gray bred 20 mares this year, 16 of which are in foal.
Mares and foals | Horsephotos
“We don't have a problem with horses–we've got a problem with owners. We don't have enough owners,” Gray said.
“The hardest thing for trainers and owners to deal with is that you don't know when a horse is going to get in,” he said. “My own personal experience, that's when a horse gets hurt, when you start holding them for a race. And it's very expensive for owners.”
Which is why Gray sees the condition book as ground-zero for change. “It all starts in the racing office,” he said.
“The biggest change I would make in racing and in the racing office, I would make a rule: if there's a stated race in the condition book and they get five-head in it, they've got to use it,” Gray said, adding that extras would be exempt from that mandate.
More generally, the racing office should be “more inventive” about the races it writes, Gray said.
This includes giving more opportunities to horses that haven't won for a period of time, “or that haven't finished first, second or third in, say, six months,” he said.
There could also be a mandate on the specific number of Cal-bred races carded per-day, he said.
“We used to have a rule that they mandated so many races per-day, strictly for Cal-breds,” said Gray. “If we had more mandated Cal-bred races again, that would certainly help.”
Shane Easterbrook
Easterbrook this year is standing the only son of red-hot sire Gun Runner in California, the former Brad Cox trained Corporal.
Easterbrook said that she and Corporal's other owner have stepped up this year the number and quality of mares they ordinarily keep, in order to support the stallion.
“I think he's got great potential,” said Easterbrook, about that decision.
As someone still investing in California breeding, Easterbrook said she'd like to see greater involvement in the sport from younger generations–or as she described it, an influx of bright young minds to an industry in need of fresh ideas.
“Right now, we're seeing the older generation as they exit the sport, there's not a younger generation coming up through behind them,” said Easterbrook.
Partly, that's because of the beating the sport has received publicly in recent years in the mainstream media, said Easterbrook. “And partly there's the financial aspect to it,” she added.
So, what would help turn that around? One would be better promotion of the sport.
“How do you get the younger generation to get excited, to get involved, to get passionate about horse racing?” said Easterbrook.
“What I would like to see is more input, more direction, more leadership as far as trying to get the younger generation involved,” said Easterbrook.
“There needs to be leadership to help promote the sport in general in a positive light, rather than what's visualized in the media,” she added.
Sonny Pais | courtesy of Sonny Pais
Alfred A. “Sonny” Pais
Owner-breeder Pais struck gold in recent years with Cal-bred meteor Brickyard Ride, who retired to stud last year at Rancho San Miguel.
For Pais, it all comes down to purses.
“We do need things to change, obviously,” said Pais. “The purses nowadays aren't any better than they were 10 to 15 years ago.”
Which underpins why Pais suggested lengthening the racing calendar afforded Del Mar, with its premium purses in the state.
“If we could extend our period, with its purse structure, at Del Mar for another couple of months, that would definitely help,” he said. “You need something to aim at.”
The post What Would Encourage California’s Breeders to Breed More Cal-Breds? appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.
