The annual GI Kentucky Derby post-position draw isn't so much about landing a favorable gate assignment as avoiding a poor one.
The task for the fast-closing Renegade got quite a bit tougher on Saturday when the flashy son of Into Mischief drew the historically unrewarding inside post for the May 2 Derby.
Much of the pre-race speculation will focus on whether or not Renegade can overcome a starting stall that has not yielded a Derby winner since 1986, when the 17-1 Ferdinand got bumped to the back, rallied wide, then darted up the rail in the stretch under a heady ride by 54-year-old Bill Shoemaker.
But a sizable chunk of the intrigue leading up to Derby 152 will involve whether or not the stigma of being buried down near the fence will be enough to sway horseplayers off the 4-1 morning-line favorite, who had been expected to carry the brunt of the betting in Louisville since his explosive victory in the
Mar. 28 GI Arkansas Derby.
In terms of having an impact on Derby wagering, you could make a case for Renegade's rail draw being the most significant post-position handicapping factor in the last decade and a half.
Over the past 70 years, the horse breaking from the rail has gone off as the Derby favorite only three times:
In 2010, the fence-drawn Lookin At Lucky was installed as the 3-1 morning-line choice. His starting mutuel ended up being double that price, but still low enough for favoritism. He got roughed up leaving the gate and again in the initial furlong, then could manage no better than sixth behind 8-1 winner Super Saver (who had broken inward from post four, contributing to crowding that adversely affected Lookin At Lucky).
In 1984, Althea and Life's Magic were coupled in the wagering as a rare two-filly Derby entry. They started fractionally north of their 5-2 morning-line price. Althea, who had drawn the rail and was considered the stronger half of the entry, was not overtly hindered by being pegged down inside. She broke well and led for the first seven furlongs, but could not sustain her speed. She regressed to 19th, beating only one eased entrant, finishing well behind 7-2 winner Swale while her stablemate ran eighth.
Prior to that, you have to go all the way back to 1956 to find an inside-drawn Derby favorite. Needles, off at 8-5, was pinched back into the first turn after starting from the fence. Jockey Dave Erb said Needles actually spit out his bit on the backstretch while dropping back to next-to-last in the field of 17. But Needles grabbed it again and responded to far-turn rousing from nearly 20 lengths back, tipping out for the drive to finish with furious late kick and win by three-quarters of a length.
Since the advent of the use of a starting gate for the Derby in 1930, the horses starting from post one are 8-5-5 from 96 starts with an 8.3% win percentage and an 18.8% in-the-money ratio.
The other Derby winners who broke from the rail since 1930 were Chateaugay (1963), Hill Gail (1952), Citation (1948), Gallahadion (1940), Lawrin (1938) and War Admiral (1937).
Field size can be a factor in how undesirably post one is perceived. Five of those above-cited winners raced in Derbies that had fields of 10 or fewer horses, so in those years post one was probably more of an advantage than an obstacle.
Now, with the Derby routinely luring 24 entrants (20 starters and four also-eligibles who can draw in if scratches occur) chaos, crowding and traffic are practically givens for inside-drawn contenders.
Just ask Renegade's jockey, Irad Ortiz, Jr.: He's 0-for-9 in the Derby dating to his first mount in the race in 2014, and two of his better chances-aboard the 9-1 Known Agenda in 2021 and the 10-1 Mo Donegal in 2022-finished off the board as closers from post one.
Despite being up against the rail-related historical metrics, Renegade does have a couple of things going for him that might mitigate the disadvantages of the innermost stall.
The first is that he's powerful but agile, and a very efficient mover. Although Renegade's preferred style is to attack from the back of the pack, he's not a bulky, lumbering closer.
Additionally, with the main speed of the Derby parked much farther outside and other off-the-pace types breaking from into gates two, four and five, Ortiz will likely not face a crush of inside-drawn competition gunning to secure a spot at the fence. Renegade, at least in theory, should be athletic enough to outbreak those rivals and gain decent positioning.
But we've never actually seen Renegade race effectively at the inside in five lifetime races.
Renegade did run third in his career debut at Saratoga last summer after breaking from the rail and chasing in the two path under Ortiz. But that was in a one-turn, 6 1/2-furlong sprint behind a 17 3/4-length winner.
In start number two, a one-turn maiden mile at Aqueduct, Renegade was finishing with gusto inside of a fast-closing rival, the well-regarded, now-sidelined Paladin (Gun Runner). But Renegade couldn't stay straight under John Velazquez, and got DQ'd from first to second for bearing out.
Ortiz regained the mount in the GII Remsen Stakes, and he has now asked Renegade to loop the field while widest in three straight stakes.
In the Remsen, Renegade did split horses near the inside after Ortiz cut the corner wide and dropped down. But the colt couldn't seal the deal and was again second-best behind Paladin.
Breaking his maiden in the Sam F. Davis Stales at Tampa, Renegade circled five wide while in hand, opening up to win by 3 3/4 lengths.
And in the GI Arkansas Derby, after a couple of back-of-pack momentum stalls while contemplating going through narrow gaps between horses, Ortiz again unleashed Renegade five deep on the far turn, blasting off through the stretch to win by four lengths.
Yet Renegade drifted out while well clear in the Davis (under left-handed stick work) and he wandered out to the eight path once he hit the lead in the Arkansas Derby.
That sort of stretch shifting wasn't a problem in both of those races because Renegade was much the best and lacked competition to keep him engaged.
But now he's going into the Derby as one of the horses to beat without having faced a serious, deep-stretch challenge in six months.
Is it a dealbreaker that both of this colt's winning moves have been from way out wide and we have still never seen him successfully fight his way through inside adversity?
Not necessarily. Renegade's blitzingly fast finishing fractions and visually arresting stretch drives might be enough to establish his status at the top of the crop, regardless of post position.
But it should make you think long and hard whether you want to bet on or against a rail-drawn favorite trying to hit the Derby winner's circle for the first time in seven decades.
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