We're inside the 16-week mark for the May 2 GI Kentucky Derby. These initial rankings are largely based on 2-year-old form, but a speculative element is baked into the equation with an eye toward projecting how these still-developing contenders will blossom over the winter and early spring.
1) TED NOFFEY (c, Into Mischief–Streak of Luck) 'TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard'. O-Spendthrift Farm LLC; B-Aaron & Marie Jones LLC (KY); T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales history: $650,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime record: MGISW, 4-4-0-0, $1,657,963. Last start: WON Oct. 31 GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
Ted Noffey left little doubt that he will be the slam-dunk 2-year-old champ after a 4-for-4 campaign that included three Grade I wins capped by an exclamation-mark victory in the Breeders' Cup.
We still have the entire winter to debate whether this 'TDN Rising Star' presented by Hagyard can outrun history to become just the third winner in 42 runnings of the Juvenile to also add the Kentucky Derby.
As those daunting odds suggest, it can be extremely difficult to go from being the most dominant divisional force over 1 1/16 miles on the final Friday in October to wearing a blanket of roses after excelling at 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May.
Even as he showed progression and increased prowess over three months of racing, all four of this Todd Pletcher trainee's races were stylistically similar, and Ted Noffey broke from the outermost post in each of his races.
In his Aug. 2 debut at Saratoga, this $650,000 KEESEP colt was urged along on the outside, chased in the four path, made a bid at the five-sixteenths pole, then took the lead under a drive in upper stretch to win by 1 1/2 lengths, earning an 86 Beyer Speed Figure in a 6 1/2-furlong sprint that yielded one next-out winner from five starters.
Next out in the Sept. 1 GI Hopeful Stakes over seven furlongs, Ted Noffey broke on top, conceded the lead, pressed outside, then retook command on the turn before fighting off two challengers in stretch, including the 6-5 favorite, quickening nicely through the final sixteenth to romp by 8 1/2 lengths (98 Beyer).
In both the Oct. 4 GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity Stakes and the Juvenile, Ted Noffey shadowed the pacemaker while outside, took over in hand on the far turn while the leader was under urging, cracked the race open in mid-stretch, then repulsed only a mild late bid from a belated closer. He won by 2 3/4 lengths and one length respectively, earning 97 Beyers in each effort.
The GII Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Feb. 28 is a possible first sophomore start.
2) DESERT GATE (c, Omaha Beach–Theogony, by Curlin) O-Michael E. Pegram, Karl Watson & Paul Weitman; B-Twin Oaks Bloodstock (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $125,000 Wlg '23 KEENOV; $100,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP; $260,000 2yo '25 OBSMAR. Lifetime record: GSW, 4-2-2-0, $246,000. Last start: 2nd Oct. 4 GI American Pharoah Stakes.
Desert Gate (Omaha Beach) missed the Breeders' Cup because of a hock infection and he hasn't won since blasting home 8 3/4 lengths in front of the GII Best Pal Stakes field at Del Mar Aug. 9.
The betting public more or less dismissed him at 68-1 in Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, but that could end up being a sizable “recency bias” mistake.
This Bob Baffert trainee is now four works into gearing up for his sophomore campaign. He raced four times as a 2-year-old, including once around two turns and twice at the Grade I level, and has a speed-centric style but has shown he doesn't need to be in front to be effective.
Desert Gate (125,000 KEENOV; $100,000 KEESEP; $260,000 OBSMAR) broke his maiden at first asking at Santa Anita June 13 sprinting five furlongs, pressing the pace and inching away from the front-runner under strong handling. It was only a field of four, but the second- and third-place horses both came back to win their next starts.
His Best Pal blowout over six furlongs was accomplished by breaking well, conceding the lead, and assertively pressuring the pacemaker. He took over in hand at the three-eighths pole and never was truly asked for another gear while widening at each subsequent call.
Desert Gate was second in the Sept. 7 GI Del Mar Futurity, finishing one length behind his $3-million stablemate and 'TDN Rising Star' presented by Hagyard Brant (Gun Runner) in a useful learning experience.
After breaking on top he stumbled back to fifth, recovered fluidly to close the gap with an inside rush, continued to gain ground while covered up near the rail, then tipped outside to make up good ground through the stretch, finishing 3 1/4 lengths ahead of the rest of the pack.
In the Oct. 4 GI American Pharoah Stakes, Desert Gate uncorked another second-place performance that might have been better than the winner's effort. This time he led from the get-go as the 9-10 favorite, took mild pressure from the second fave, came back on that rival when headed, repulsed a stretch bid from a new foe, then got nailed at the wire by 8-1 Intrepido (Maximus Mischief)–himself a 'Rising Star'–losing by three-quarters of a length.
3) PALADIN (c, Gun Runner–Secret Sigh, by Tapit) O-Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Peter M. Brant, Brook T. Smith, and Summer Wind Equine, LLC; B-Summer Wind Equine LLC (KY); T-Chad C. Brown. Sales history: $1,900,000 Ylg '24 FTSAUG. Lifetime record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $184,250. Last start: WON Dec. 6 GII Remsen Stakes.
This $1.9 million FTSAUG son of Gun Runner broke his maiden at first asking via disqualification in an Aqueduct one-turn mile Oct. 17 (87 Beyer), then won the nine-furlong Remsen Stakes by two lengths (85 Beyer).
There should be no hand-wringing about that two-point regression considering Paladin's finish in the Remsen represented improvement from a “how he did it” perspective, and also because trainer Chad Brown revealed post-win that this colt lost his right front shoe at some point during the Remsen while also sustaining a hind-leg cut.
Favored at 1.88-1, Paladin broke alertly from post two in that 11-horse stakes, but opted not to hook up with dueling 53-1 and 29-1 longshots. He settled in third along the inside under Flavien Prat and was always a pace-pressing threat, incrementally edging closer starting at the half-mile marker.
Prat did have to scrub on Paladin for run 2 1/2 furlongs out, then edge him out to the five path in search of clear running room into the lane.
But once set down for the drive, Paladin finished straight and with purpose, opening up under the wire from the same rival (Renegade, a $975,000 Into Mischief colt from Todd Pletcher's barn) who had finished a head in front of him in that previous maiden tilt.
Paladin is wintering in Florida at Brown's Payson Park training base, and resumed breezing three weeks after his Remsen score. He's being pointed toward the GII Risen Star Stakes Feb. 14 at Fair Grounds.
4) CANNONEER (c, Into Mischief–Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon) 'TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard'. O-St. Elias Stable & Stonestreet Stables LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Sales history: $1,750,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime record: 2-1-0-1, $81,300. Last start: WON Nov. 29 Churchill Downs MSW.
Cannoneer is a half-brother to two horses who started in the Kentucky Derby (Midnight Bourbon, fifth in 2021, and Girvin, 13th in 2017). He demolished a seven-furlong maiden field in the nightcap of the Stars of Tomorrow card for juveniles at Churchill Downs on Thanksgiving weekend when favored at 1.77-1 odds.
This son of Into Mischief earned a 90 Beyer in that blowout, exhibiting sharp early speed, poise for having to deal with a riderless horse directly to his outside for half the race, and a powerful finishing kick that left 11 rivals 7 1/4 lengths behind his widening wake.
That win came nearly six months after his 0.45-1 debut June 1 (also at Churchill), in which Cannoneer could do no better than third after breaking a step slow and weakening after an inside duel.
“He made the races early in the spring,” trainer Brad Cox said on the Dec. 2 TDN Writers' Room podcast. “After his first race I wasn't quite happy with the way he was moving, so we gave him the time. There could have been something maybe bothering him that day. We just didn't get the performance we were looking for.
“We backed off of him, gave him the time. He came back into Keeneland on the first of October and immediately, as soon as we worked him, we saw that the talent was still there. It never went anywhere. I had a pretty good feeling he was going to get ready quick, and he did,” Cox said.
Cannoneer's two-turn debut looms as the next logical step. He resumed breezing at Payson Park Dec. 24.
Cannoneer | Coady Media
5) INCREDIBOLT (c, Bolt d'Oro–Sapphire Spitfire, by Awesome Again) O-Pin Oak Stud LLC; B-Deann Baer & Greg Baer DVM (KY); T-Riley Mott. Sales history: $75,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime record: GSW, 3-2-0-0, $196,181. Last start: WON Oct. 26 GIII Street Sense Stakes.
After a bit of freshening on the farm, Incredibolt is training at Palm Meadows for trainer Riley Mott. The winner of the Oct. 26 GIII Street Sense Stakes at Churchill is possible for the Jan. 31 GIII Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
This $75,000 KEESEP son of Bolt d'Oro was fourth as the 5-2 beaten favorite in his Ellis Park debut when sprinting six furlongs Aug. 22, breaking toward the back from post 11 and gaining mild ground while widest for most of the trip.
Stretched to a one-turn mile Sept. 28 at Churchill and sent off as the 2-1 second choice, Incredibolt drew the rail and popped out of the gate alertly. Although initially rated back leaving the chute, he was intent on pulling himself into contention before settling into a covered-up stalking spot third at the fence. He was pushed on for run around the turn and responded, then shifted off the heels of the leader three-sixteenths out and sparked into a headlong drive that had him two lengths clear at the wire.
In the Street Sense four weeks later, Incredibolt was the 4-1 third choice from the outermost seven draw and gave up four and then three paths of real estate on the turns while trailing about six lengths off the action.
Under a rating hold until the 3 1/2-furlong marker, he built decent momentum through the far bend and had clear sailing into the lane, never hesitating despite brushing with an inner rival in mid-stretch before opening up past tiring leaders with no true competition firing at him late. The 1 3/4-length score yielded an 82 Beyer.
6) NEARLY (c, Not This Time–Ib Prospecting, by Mineshaft) O-Centennial Farms; B-Wind Hill Farm (FL); T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales history: $350,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime record: 3-2-0-0, $78,950. Last start: WON Jan. 2 Gulfstream Park AOC.
Nearly, a $350,0000 KEESEP son of Not This time from Todd Pletcher's stable, has won two consecutive sprints at Gulfstream by a combined 14 1/4 lengths.
After a puzzler of a last-place finish in a mildly trip-troubled Oct. 26 Aqueduct debut, Nearly took down a Florida-bred maiden race at Gulfstream as the 8-5 favorite Nov. 22.
Stretched from six to seven furlongs in a scratch-depleted allowance/optional claimer Jan. 2, Nearly absorbed a body blow at the break from the 7-10 favorite, but what stood out was how unfazed the colt was by the contact.
John Velazquez regrouped at the back of the pack, and Nearly quickly tagged on behind dueling leaders without expending much effort. He hooked up with the favored pacemaker under a hand ride around the turn, and as the cadence quickened, Nearly maintained a non-nonsense rhythm and drew away at will, besting his three rivals by five lengths.
His Beyer number came back as 96, but figure-making at Gulfstream was tough last Friday, with only two dirt races on the card to use for comparison.
Pletcher indicated post-win that Nearly could stretch out in the Holy Bull Stakes Jan. 31.
7) BUETANE (c, Tiz the Law–Taboo, by Forestry) 'TDN Rising Star,'presented by Hagyard. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Merriebelle Stable, LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $150,000 Ylg '24 FTSAUG; $1,150,000 2yo '25 OBSAPR. Lifetime record: 2-1-1-0, $108,000. Last start: 2nd Sept. 1 GI Hopeful Stakes.
Buetane, a Tiz the Law colt from Bob Baffert's barn, sold for $150,000 as an FTSAUG yearling, then hammered for 10 times that auction price at the OBSAPR sale.
As the 3-10 fave in his 3 1/2-length debut victory at Del Mar Aug. 2, Buetane pressed the leader, took over under light hand encouragement just prior to the quarter pole, then finished well with no one closing late to challenge him. The race came back as an 83 on the Beyer scale and yielded one next-out winner from the five other starters.
Shipped cross-country for the closing-day Hopeful Stakes at the Spa, Buetane was favored at 6-5 over Ted Noffey. He shadowed that eventual winner while outside for most of the race, but Buetane was hard-ridden off the turn while Ted Noffey kicked away in hand, and Buetane had to settle for a best-of-the rest second (82 Beyer), 8 1/2 lengths behind Ted Noffey.
Buetane has been working at Santa Anita without interruption since late October. He'll start there this Saturday as the favorite in the GII San Vicente Stakes over seven furlongs.
8) COMMANDMENT (c, Into Mischief–Sippican Harbor, by Orb) O-Wathnan Racing; B-Lee Pokoik (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Sales history: $485,000 RNA Wlg '23 FTKNOV; $475,000 RNA Ylg '24 FTSAUG; $500,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime record: SW, 3-2-0-0, $165,459. Last start: WON Jan. 3 Mucho Macho Man Stakes.
Commandment has started favored every time out, and over the course of three races while stretching from six to seven to eight furlongs, this Brad Cox trainee has exhibited the makings of a colt who can handle the load of increasing distances.
In his 82 Beyer debut at Keeneland, this son of Into Mischief ($485,000 RNA FTKNOV; $475,000 RNA FTSAUG; $500,000 KEESEP) rallied from 11th to get fourth while inside before tipping out to the five path at the eighth pole.
Drawing the rail in start number two at Churchill Nov. 1, Commandment again broke toward the back, knifed between foes, and won going away by 5 1/2 lengths, although his Beyer number decreased by one point.
Coming off a two-month break in this past Saturday's Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream, Commandment again was tasked with a rail draw and was again lackadaisical from the gate.
For part of his confidently handled trip around the far turn, it looked like Irad Ortiz, Jr.'s commitment to a ground-saving go might cost the colt, as this 1-2 fave was blocked behind a wall of four horses battling for the lead.
But Commandment pulsed through a top-of-the-lane gap when the opening presented itself, powering away to win by 6 3/4 lengths while upping his Beyer to 90.
While the repeated tardiness from the stalls is not desirable, in Commandment's case that fault is mitigated by the fact that he has shown no qualms about handling covered-up trips at the fence, nor has he shown any hesitation when asked to split rivals.
Commandment | Coglianese
9) IRON HONOR (c, Nyquist–Orenica, by Blame) O-St. Elias Stable, William H. Lawrence and Cathi Glassman; B-Mike Freeny and Pat Freeny; T-Chad C. Brown. Sales history: $230,000 Ylg '24 KEEJAN; $475,000 Ylg KEESEP. Lifetime record 1-1-0-0, $46,750. Last start: WON Dec. 13 Aqueduct MSW.
This is a speculative selection because I'm generally disinclined to project Top 12 placement upon one-start sprint maiden winners. But hey, it's early January, and Iron Honor's 95-Beyer debut at Aqueduct was a strong foundational first start.
Plus, based upon that effort, trainer Chad Brown has opted to send this colt to Florida to avoid conflicts running against other, more seasoned prospects in his stable who are targeting stakes in New York and New Orleans.
This son of 2016 Derby champ Nyquist ($230,000 KEEJAN; $475,000 KEESEP) assertively tracked and engaged a favored speedster, then edged away to a 1 1/2-length score without being fully roused over six furlongs Dec. 13.
The colt he beat, Crossingthechannel (Omaha Beach), came back to wire another Aqueduct MSW sprint with an 85 Beyer Jan. 4.
Iron Honor is a May 1 foal, and Brown told the Aqueduct press office over the weekend that he believes the colt will handle longer races.
“He trains that way,” Brown said. “He's a horse that mentally needed time to come around but now I'm seeing the best of him. If he keeps doing what he's been doing, he should turn out to be a nice prospect. I did move him down to my South Florida base here at Payson Park in an effort to separate some of these horses. I'll point him to a developmental campaign down here and stretch him out.”
10) LITMUS TEST (c, Nyquist–Study Hard, by Malibu Moon) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Bashor, Dianne, Determined Stables, Golconda Stable, Waves Edge Capital LLC and Donovan, Catherine; B-Machmer Hall (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $875,000 Ylg '24 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-0-1, $350,188. Last start: WON Dec. 13 GII Los Alamitos Futurity.
I have to admit up front that in recent years, I've had difficulty properly assessing the winners of the GII Los Alamitos Futurity.
I don't know whether it's the annually short fields or the long (1,380 feet) stretch over which they run that distorts my perceptions. But in 2023 I passed on including Practical Move in my early-season Kentucky Derby prognostications after he won that stakes, and I likewise wasn't initially convinced about Journalism's chances last year after he, too, won over the retrofitted Quarter Horse oval.
In both seasons, I had to later recalibrate as those horses proved worthy of Top 12 inclusion. So it's with those misfires in mind that I'll give Litmus Test a shot in early 2026.
After all, this is a colt ($875,000 FTSAUG) who has an edge in experience (five lifetime races, three at two turns, two in Grade I stakes). He also hails from the barn of Bob Baffert, whose horses have crossed the Kentucky Derby finish wire first on seven occasions (with one DQ).
Litmus Test has been riding an ascending Beyer arc (78-82-89-95-96) that includes one third and one fourth behind divisional kingpin Ted Noffey, plus a 1 1/4-length score over five rivals in the Los Al Futurity.
Although his Breeders' Cup Juvenile fourth resonated as a no-impact effort, Litmus Test took advantage of fortuitous circumstances when favored at 3-5 against lesser foes at Los Al.
He broke well, tucked inside near the back, then inherited a sweet stalking spot in second, moving to the outside behind a too-fast leader when another rival bore out badly on the first turn and carried two other horses very wide.
Litmus Test prowled just off the shoulder of the pacemaker, seized the lead at will five-sixteenths out, then spun wide into the lane. Yet at the quarter pole, he gave up that top spot to the wilting front-runner he had just passed.
Litmus Test did manage to claw back the lead, finishing well enough but getting a minor scare from a maiden who was the only true threat through the final sixteenth.
Although it wasn't the most artful victory, the Los Al Futurity should serve Litmus Test well from a moving-forward standpoint.
11) MY WORLD (Essential Quality–Quebec, by Into Mischief) O-Robert V. LaPenta & Madaket Stables LLC; B-Cove Springs, LLC (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Sales history: $350,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime record: MSW, 4-3-0-0, $217,750. Last start: WON Jan. 3 Jerome Stakes.
My World is a lighter-framed gray who has overachieved while winning back-to-back listed stakes at Aqueduct. While he doesn't yet appear to have things fully figured out mentally, he's a hard trier who doesn't seem to mind that horse racing can sometimes be a contact sport.
After breaking his maiden sprinting in his second lifetime start, this Brad Cox trainee scored a mild upset as the third choice in the five-horse Nashua Stakes at Aqueduct Nov. 1. He pressed the 11-1 pacemaker (a subsequent stakes winner at Penn National), took on that leader between the five-sixteenths and quarter poles, then bounced him into the fence coming off the turn while snatching the lead.
Despite having his head cocked out toward the grandstand, My World put away a new challenger, the second-favorite, and produced a renewed deep-stretch spurt to kick clear by 3 1/2 lengths (79 Beyer).
In another one-turn mile, the Jan. 3 Jerome Stakes, My World was (somewhat surprisingly) let go as the 2.62-1 third betting choice in a four-horse field. He wasn't affected by a mild bump at the break, then let the odds-on favorite duel with a 26-1 longshot.
Always within two lengths of those pacemakers for the long, half-mile run out of the chute and down the back straight, My World confronted the 0.74-1 choice when that fave cracked the long shot on the turn, dueled with him into upper stretch, then dropped back for several strides.
Resiliently, My World re-engaged when it looked like he'd be left behind, responding to judicious alternating stick work from Jaime Rodriguez.
My World lugged in, yet was emboldened when the two brushed in deep stretch. He then finished well to open up by two lengths, with Rodriguez reverting to hand urging under the wire (84 Beyer).
It's a nice ticket to have in your back pocket if you took a flyer on My World at 147-1 in Pool 2 of the Derby future wager.
12) LIBERTY NATIONAL (c, Maxfield–Virtuoso, by Awesome Again) 'TDN Rising Star' presented by Hagyard. O-Brookdale Racing, Inc. & Fern Circle Stables; B-Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY); T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales history: $525,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime record: 3-1-1-0, $90,675. Last start: 2nd Dec. 20 Gun Runner Stakes.
Liberty National is a far more imposing physical specimen than trainer Kenny McPeek's 2024 Derby winner, Mystik Dan.
This $525,000 KEESEP colt, produced by an unraced full-sister to GISW Paynter, was most recently second over 1 1/16 miles in the slow-stretch Gun Runner Stakes (:7.48 final sixteenth) as the 13-10 favorite.
The more useful measuring stick might be Liberty National's maiden-breaking tally on the Nov. 29 Stars of Tomorrow card at Churchill, when his 1 1/16-miles win was clocked just 0.08 seconds off the final time for that afternoon's feature, the GII Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.
This colt's sixth-place Oct. 16 debut over seven furlongs at Keeneland is also worth noting. That field of eight yielded four horses who came back to win their next races, and five altogether who have since broken their maidens, including one, Chip Honcho (Connect), who subsequently beat Liberty National in the Gun Runner Stakes.
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