This coming weekend's nine-furlong stakes at Oaklawn and Gulfstream have the potential to usher in a major shake-up within the rankings, with seven of the Top 12 listed below entered in either the GI Arkansas Derby or the GI Curlin Florida Derby.
1) PALADIN (c, Gun Runner–Secret Sigh, by Tapit) O-Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Peter M. Brant, Brook T. Smith, and Summer Wind Equine, LLC; B-Summer Wind Equine LLC (KY); T-Chad C. Brown. Sales history: $1,900,000 Ylg '24 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 3-3-0-0, $848,250. Last start: WON Feb. 14 GII Risen Star Stakes.
The three-for-three Paladin, a $1.9-million FTSAUG son of Gun Runner, maintains his lofty placement atop the sophomore totem pole. But company's coming.
This Chad Brown trainee is awaiting the Apr. 4 GI Toyota Blue Grass Stakes as his final prep for the GI Kentucky Derby.
The last eight times Brown has had at least one starter in the Blue Grass, the results have included three wins, three close seconds, and a third.
Yet the Blue Grass itself has been a poor prognosticator for Derby success over the last three decades. No Blue Grass victor has scored in the Derby since Strike the Gold in 1991, and no participant coming out of the Blue Grass has won the Derby since Street Sense parlayed a second-place finish at Keeneland into a blanket of roses at Churchill in 2007.
Favored at 1.13-1 first time out, Paladin broke his maiden via disqualification in an Aqueduct one-turn mile Oct. 17 (87 Beyer Speed Figure), finishing a head behind the horse who fouled him, the No. 5-ranked Renegade (Into Mischief).
In the Dec. 6 GII Remsen Stakes, Paladin was favored at 1.88-1. He broke running from post two and settled third along the inside behind dueling 53-1 and 29-1 long shots. Scrubbed on for run by Flavien Prat 2 1/2 furlongs out, Paladin swept into contention five wide off the turn and finished with purpose, opening up by two lengths under the wire (85 Beyer).
Paladin's churn-and-grind kick was again on display in the Feb. 14 GII Risen Star Stakes, in which he was favored at 7-10 odds. The difference, though, was that unlike in the Remsen, Paladin was more assertive and did not require the same level of far-turn rousing to get into gear, carrying along jockey Tyler Gaffalione (subbing for Prat, who was riding in Saudi Arabia), at a comfortable clip before being set down for the drive. He won by a half-length with a 93 Beyer.
In the strength-of-competition category, the horses who finished 2-3-4 behind Paladin in the Risen Star didn't exactly flatter his company line when they all started in this past weekend's GII Louisiana Derby. They ran fifth, third and fourth, respectively.
2) COMMANDMENT (c, Into Mischief–Sippican Harbor, by Orb) O-Wathnan Racing; B-Lee Pokoik (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Sales history: $485,000 RNA Wlg '23 FTKNOV; $475,000 RNA Ylg '24 FTSAUG; $500,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-0-0, $403,539. Last start: WON Feb. 28 GII Fountain of Youth Stakes.
This three-for-four son of Into Mischief has an edge in consistency, having repeatedly shown he can settle into a comfortable rhythm while either covered up at the fence or surrounded by horses before knifing through to finish powerfully in his stretch runs.
Commandment has drawn post four for the nine-entrant Florida Derby. He exits a 101-Beyer victory in the 1 1/16-miles GII Fountain of Youth Stakes that was conducted over Gulfstream's short-stretch configuration (finish line at the sixteenth pole).
Although it was tough to see on the race replay, jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. asked Commandment to gallop out with good energy to the second finish line in that Feb. 28 stakes, which will be the wire used Saturday for the nine-furlong Florida Derby.
Prior to winning the Fountain of Youth, Commandment took down the Jan. 3. one-turn-mile Mucho Macho Man Stakes under confident handling, and also tallied in a seven-furlong MSW at Churchill Downs, opening up late by 5 1/2 lengths. His only defeat was in his career debut, when he rallied from 11th to get fourth going six furlongs at Keeneland.
Numbers-wise, Commandment is well within the range for being able to deliver a speed figure good enough to win the Florida Derby. Starting with 2025 and tracking back to 2019, the last seven winning Beyers for that stakes have been 94, 110, 95, 96, 94, 96 and 101.
3) EMERGING MARKET (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Wild Empress, by Empire Maker) ”TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard.' O-Klaravich Stables, Inc.; B-Stoneriggs Farm (KY); T-Chad C. Brown. Sales history: $185,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $618,880. Last start: WON Mar. 21 GII Louisiana Derby.
Until last Saturday, the Derby trail this year had pretty much unfolded without a “Wow!” race from a new shooter who we didn't already know about when these rankings were first published in January.
Then along came the big New Orleans breakout by this Chad Brown-trained Candy Ride (Arg) colt.
Emerging Market won a length-of-stretch slugfest in the Louisiana Derby, earning that victory in a manner that suggests he's gained more seasoning from two lifetime starts than many of his peers have accumulated in months of racing.
Off at 3.2-1 odds, Emerging Market debuted in a Tampa Bay Downs route over one mile 40 yards Feb. 7. Under Flavien Prat, he conceded the lead, saved ground, and settled willingly. Incrementally targeting horses with an inside run before sluicing five wide into the lane, Emerging Market bumped soundly and repeatedly with the favored leader for most of the stretch run before stubbornly prevailing by three-quarters of a length, leaving the rest of the fragmented field 13 1/2 lengths behind.
Emerging Market's winning time was .97 seconds off the track record, equating to a 97 Beyer. He galloped out long and strong after the wire.
Drawing the outermost nine post for the Louisiana Derby made the first race against winners a little tougher for this 2-1 favorite. But Emerging Market once again responded willingly to Prat's patient cues. After stalking from fifth for the first half of the race, he advanced in hand through the far turn, unleashed a four-wide bid that briefly catapulted him to the lead at the quarter pole, then for a full furlong was the main aggressor in a shoulder-to-shoulder tilt with the much more experienced Pavlovian (Pavel), who clawed back the lead while making his 10th lifetime start and coming off a win in the Sunland Derby.
Emerging Market drove relentlessly, finally wresting control from Pavlovian inside the sixteenth pole to win by a head. The top two were assigned co-Beyers of 90.
Brown is known for a patient approach to handling young horses, so no one would have been surprised after the Louisiana Derby if he said Emerging Market might bypass the Derby.
That would be similar to what Brown did in 2022 and 2017 with both Early Voting and Cloud Computing, who each ran well enough to hit the board in the GII Wood Memorial Stakes in their third career races, but then skipped the Derby and instead were freshened to win the GI Preakness Stakes.
Yet Brown told TDN on Sunday that Emerging Market is “very much under consideration” for the Derby.
If he does start in Louisville, Emerging Market will attempt to become just the second horse to win the Derby after prepping with only two lifetime starts. Leonatus was the only horse ever to do so, winning the 1883 edition of the Derby (over 12 furlongs and on just one week's rest!) in his third lifetime race.
Six other two-start horses since 1937 have attempted that feat, with none faring better than fifth in the Derby.
Emerging Market winning the Louisiana Derby | Hodges Photography
4) NEARLY (c, Not This Time–Ib Prospecting, by Mineshaft) O-Centennial Farms; B-Wind Hill Farm (FL); T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales history: $350,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-0-0, $249,900. Last start: WON Jan. 31 GIII Holy Bull Stakes.
Nearly clearly relishes Gulfstream's main track, which meshes well with his speed-oriented style. He's won three straight there by a combined 20 lengths, and is riding an upward arc of Beyer figures (49-82-97-98) coming off a win in the GIII Holy Bull Stakes.
In that Jan. 31 stakes, this $350,0000 KEESEP colt from Todd Pletcher's stable forced an overheated pace, drilled the favorite into defeat, yet still had plenty left to repulse an off-the-turn late challenger before opening up to win by 5 3/4 lengths. It's worth noting that such a sizable open-length margin can be difficult to achieve over Gulfstream's short-stretch configuration for 1 1/16-miles races.
Nearly will start in Saturday's nine-furlong Florida Derby from post six while coming off a two-month layoff. There is speed drawn to his inside, and although Nearly is at his best when forcing the issue on the front end, he's not the type of colt who requires being on the lead, which will allow John Velazquez (aboard for all three of the colt's victories) to be flexible about early-race placement.
Nearly's company line out of the Holy Bull doesn't give us much of a clue either way about the quality of that field because only two of the six horses have raced back.
Bravaro (Upstart), who made the run at Nearly at the top of the lane and finished second in the Holy Bull, was subsequently fourth, beaten 11 lengths by Commandment in the Fountain of Youth Stakes.
Incredibolt (Bolt d'Oro), who ran last in the Holy Bull without an evident excuse, came back to win the one-turn, nine-furlong Virginia Derby in his next start with an 88 Beyer.
5) RENEGADE (c, Into Mischief–Spice Is Nice, by Curlin) O-Robert & Lawana L. Low, and Repole Stable; B-Robert & Lawana Low (KY); T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales history: $975,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-1-2-1, $199,000. Last start: WON Feb. 7 Sam F. Davis Stakes.
This $975,000 KEESEP son of Into Mischief is the 3-2 morning-line favorite for Saturday's GI Arkansas Derby.
Renegade was last in action Feb. 7, breaking his maiden in lifetime start number four in the Listed Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.
Rated off the pace in next-to-last position in that field of nine, Renegade looped the group five wide on the far turn and rolled to the lead without encountering serious resistance, opening up to win by 3 3/4 lengths while drifting out under left-handed stick work from Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Originally assigned a 92 Beyer, Renegade's winning figure for the Davis has since been revised one tick upward to 93.
The only Triple Crown-caliber horse in Renegade's wake that day was third-place finisher The Puma (Essential Quality), who in his next start finished with a flourish to win the Mar. 7 GIII Tampa Bay Derby. Three other also-rans out of the Davis were subsequently third, sixth and ninth in the Virginia Derby.
Despite starting his season still a maiden, this Todd Pletcher trainee had built up a fair amount of company-line credibility based on who he raced against at age two in New York.
Renegade was third behind a 17 3/4-length winner, the 'TDN Rising Star presented by Hagyard' It's Our Time (Not This Time), in his Saratoga debut. He then finished a head better than Paladin, the current No. 1 on this list, in a one-turn-mile MSW at Aqueduct, but was disqualified from the victory because of stretch interference.
Renegade then was second, beaten two lengths by Paladin, in the Remsen Stakes, a race for which Renegade wasn't ideally prepped because he had missed some November training due to a quarter crack.
6) CHIEF WALLABEE (c, Constitution–A La Lucie, by Medaglia d'Oro) 'TDN Rising Star presented by Hagyard'. O/B-Mike Ball & Katherine Ball (KY); T-William I. Mott. Lifetime Record: GSP, 2-2-0-0, $117,600. Last start: 2nd Feb. 28 GII Fountain of Youth Stakes.
This homebred son of Constitution from Bill Mott's stable has drawn post two for Saturday's Florida Derby.
He's coming into the race after breaking his maiden sprinting seven furlongs at Gulfstream Jan. 10, then finishing a strong second in the 1 1/16-miles Feb. 28 Fountain of Youth Stakes, beaten a only neck despite giving up more ground than the No. 2-ranked, inside-trip winner, Commandment.
Should Chief Wallabee run well enough to merit a trip to Louisville, he'll be just the 30th horse since 1900 to try the Kentucky Derby off exactly three lifetime starts.
Only four previous three-start horses have won the Derby, but three of them did it within the past two decades, underscoring the evolving “less is more” mindset for preparing young horses for Triple Crown competition.
Those winners were Regret in 1915, Big Brown in 2008, Justify in 2018 and Mage in 2023.
Of the remaining 25, only one finished better than seventh in the Derby: Curlin who was third in 2007 (but subsequently won the GI Preakness Stakes and ran second in the GI Belmont Stakes).
Chief Wallabee has been assigned Beyer figures of 89 and 100 for his first two starts.
For comparison, here's a look at the Beyer patterns for the first three starts of those aforementioned modern-day Derby winners, with their Kentucky Derby-winning Beyers in parenthesis.
Big Brown: 90, 106, 106 (109).
Justify: 104, 101, 107 (103).
Mage: 89, 88, 94 (105).
Also worth noting is that Big Brown's third start was a win in the Florida Derby, and Mage's third start was a runner-up try, beaten only one length, also in the Florida Derby.
Chief Wallabee | Ryan Thompson
7) IRON HONOR (c, Nyquist–Orenica, by Blame). O-St. Elias Stable, William H. Lawrence and Glassman Racing; B-Mike Freeny and Pat Freeny; T-Chad C. Brown. Sales history: $230,000 Ylg '24 KEEJAN; $475,000 Ylg KEESEP. Lifetime Record GSW, 2-2-0-0, $211,750. Last start: WON Feb. 28 GIII Gotham Stakes.
The 2-for-2 Iron Honor ($230,000 KEEJAN; $475,000 KEESEP) is on target for the Apr. 4 GII Wood Memorial Stakes. Should he run big at Aqueduct, this Chad Brown trainee would be facing the same only-three-starts-before-the-Derby hurdle detailed in Chief Wallabee's writeup above.
From a development standpoint, this son of 2016 Derby champ Nyquist ($230,000 KEEJAN; $475,000 KEESEP) might be even more against the grain of convention considering he's a relatively late May 1 foal.
Brown had said back in January that Iron Honor “mentally needed time to come around” prior to his December debut. Now that the colt has paired a maiden victory sprinting six furlongs (95 Beyer) with a pressure-and-pounce score in the one-turn-mile GIII Gotham Stakes (90 Beyer), he's shaping up as the horse to beat in the nine-furlong Wood.
If Iron Honor does manage to roll home in the Wood in emphatic fashion, he will be a very dangerous contender by his actual third birthdate rolls around the day before the Derby.
8) LITMUS TEST (c, Nyquist–Study Hard, by Malibu Moon). O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Bashor, Dianne, Determined Stables, Golconda Stable, Waves Edge Capital LLC and Donovan, Catherine; B-Machmer Hall (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $875,000 Ylg '24 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-2-0-2, $440,188. Last start: 3rd Mar. 1 GII Rebel Stakes.
After Litmus Test ran a subpar third contesting the pace from the one hole in the GII Rebel Stakes, trainer Bob Baffert said the colt would be more comfortable rating from farther back.
This $875,000 FTSAUG son of Nyquist drew the outermost nine post for Saturday's Arkansas Derby, which should allow new jockey Francisco Arrieta (taking over from Flavien Prat, who rides Commandment in the Florida Derby) to drop back and save ground while picking a launch point for one sustained run.
With five lifetime races at age two, including three at two turns and two in Grade I stakes, Litmus Test has a broader foundational base than many of his Top 12 counterparts.
Litmus Test was third, then fourth, behind the now-sidelined juvenile champ, Ted Noffey, in both the GI Breeders' Futurity Stakes and GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
The best version of this large-framed colt was his 1 1/4-length, re-rallying score over five rivals in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity Dec. 13.
Although a close finish in the Arkansas Derby would add to the 34 qualifying points Litmus Test has already accrued, he really needs to win a race at age three to fit the profile of a top-tier Kentucky Derby threat.
In the past decade and a half, only Rich Strike (2022) and Super Saver (2010) crossed the finish wire first in the Derby after not winning a sophomore race prior to the first Saturday in May.
9) THE PUMA (c, Essential Quality–Eve of War, by Declaration of War). O-OGMA Investments LLC, JR Ranch and High Step Racing LLC; B-Hidden Brook Farm & Brian Kahn (KY); T-Gustavo Delgado. Sales history: $95,000 RNA Ylg '24 KEESEP; $150,000 2yo '25 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-1-1-1, $244,280. Last start: WON Mar. 7 GIII Tampa Bay Derby.
Races over the main track at Tampa Bay Downs, with its sandy surface and steeply banked turns, can be difficult to interpret. This year's GIII Tampa Bay Derby came with the additional twist of being run right after a significant burst of pre-race rain, and even though the track was listed as “fast” on the Equibase chart, it was more akin to a “wet-fast” designation.
The downpour might have contributed to the way the track played during and after that race. The first seven dirt races on the card were won by horses either wiring the field (three) or sitting just off the speed (four). The Tampa Derby itself was won in deep-closing fashion by The Puma, and the final dirt race on the card was won by a stalker from mid-pack.
Regardless of whether his style was augmented by a changing surface, the three-quarter length win by this son of Essential Quality ($95,000 RNA KEESEP; $150,000 OBSAPR), stamped him as a late-on-the-scene Kentucky Derby candidate.
Under Javier Castellano, this Gustavo Delgado trainee gave up four paths of real estate on the first turn, angled out to lane eight on the backstretch, then swept five deep on the far bend to commence a prolonged, 3 1/2-furlong bid.
The top three finishers in the Tampa Bay Derby were separated by less than a length, and The Puma was unfazed by light bumping late in the lane when that trio ran together through the final furlong in close quarters.
The Puma had previously been keeping excellent company in two lifetime starts this past winter.
In his Jan. 10 Gulfstream debut, he was second, beaten 1 1/2 lengths, when favored over the now No. 6-ranked Chief Wallabee.
And as a maiden in against stakes company in Tampa's Feb. 7 Sam F. Davis Stakes, he was third, six lengths behind the current No. 5 on this list, Renegade.
The Puma will be racing back in just three weeks off his Tampa Derby score when he starts from post eight in Saturday's Florida Derby.
The Puma | SV Photography
10) FURTHER ADO (c, Gun Runner–Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa). 'TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard'. O-Spendthrift Farm LLC; B-John C. Oxley (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Sales history: $275,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP; $550,000 2yo '25 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-1-1, $390,703. Last start: 2nd Mar. 7 GIII Tampa Bay Derby.
Back at the start of the season, I wasn't impressed enough with Further Ado's 82-Beyer win in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes to give him a berth within the Top 12.
But considering the circumstances of the Tampa Bay Derby (see the analysis of The Puma above), I have to credit this son of Gun Runner ($275,000 KEESEP; $550,000 OBSAPR) with running a much-better-than-it-looks second when making his first start off a 3 1/2-month layoff.
Further Ado absorbed a minor bump at the break but then put himself into a forward position, angling four paths off the fence through the first turn before settling into a sweet stalking spot in third down the backstretch behind dueling long shots.
He edged closer on the far turn and got first run at those pacemakers, then immediately was accosted by The Puma and favored 'TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard' Canaletto (Into Mischief).
This Brad Cox trainee initially looked overmatched by that double-team challenge, but he repeatedly fought back when headed, and ended up being the only horse who had raced within the first flight to stick around in the top three at the finish.
His 87 Beyer is still 11 points off the 98 he earned with an eye-opening 20-length win in a Keeneland MSW route nearly six months ago. But the forward progress in his form from the Tampa race will end up being more important than any numerical rating.
Further Ado could start in the Apr. 4 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.
11) SILENT TACTIC (c, Tacitus–Magical Sign, by Gun Runner). O-John C. Oxley; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Mark E. Casse. Sales history: $60,000 Ylg '24 FTKOCT; $500,000 2yo '25 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-3-0, $774,422. Last start: 2nd Mar. 1 GII Rebel Stakes.
Never worse than second in five races, all at 1 1/16 miles, Silent Tactic is steady and capable if not flashy.
He's aiming to be the only horse this season to compete in all four of Oaklawn's Kentucky Derby qualifying races after having drawn post two for the Arkansas Derby.
With a 12-1 win in the GIII Southwest Stakes and three second-place tries in other stakes at both Woodbine and in Hot Springs, this Mark Casse-trained son of Tacitus ($60,000 FTKOCT; $500,000 OBSAPR) consistently gains ground in the late stages of his races.
In the Mar. 1 Rebel, Silent Tactic weaved through far-turn traffic from the back of the pack, but was blocked behind a wall of front-runners. He belatedly swept four wide and did manage to attain the lead several times in the final furlong before 8-1 winner Class President (Uncle Mo) fought back to win by a nose.
Both colts were credited with 91 Beyers. Silent Tactic's Beyer progression now stands at 74-71-81-88-91 (first two races on Tapeta).
Starting with 2025 and going back to 2019, these are the winning Beyers for the Arkansas Derby, listed in reverse chronological order and including two divisions in 2020: 99, 98, 94, 92, 92, (98 and 96), 101.
12) REAGAN'S HONOR (c, 3, Honor A. P.–Rutile, by Medaglia d'Oro). O-West Point Thoroughbreds, David Ingordo & Gabriel Duignan; B-David Ingordo & Jerome S Moss (KY); T-Cherie DeVaux. Sales history: $140,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-0, $72,300. Last start: WON Feb. 19 Fair Grounds ALW.
Reagan's Honor, a medium-framed colt who leap-frogged into the Top 12 with a 6 3/4-length, 96-Beyer, first-level allowance wiring over older horses Feb. 19 at Fair Grounds, is on his way to Keeneland for his one-and-only qualifying points crack to earn a berth in the Derby.
Campaigned by trainer Cherie DeVaux, this speed-centric son of Honor A.P. took down that 1 1/16-miles allowance (which has since yielded one next-out winner from three starters) with a clocking of 1:42.02, just one-hundredth of a second off the track record set by Olympiad in the GIII Mineshaft Stakes exactly four years earlier.
Reagan's Honor ($140,000 KEESEP) is prepping for the Blue Grass Stakes over nine furlongs.
He's out of a Medaglia d'Oro mare who is a half-sister to Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo, the late-striding gray who upset the field in the 2005 edition at 50-1 odds.
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