It can be hazardous to one's betting bankroll to drink the hype-flavored Kool-Aid that flows freely when an undefeated sophomore with limited experience wins a nine-furlong prep for the GI Kentucky Derby in eye-catching fashion.
Yet despite the well-documented risks against backing horses who have made only two lifetime starts prior to the first Saturday in May, Emerging Market just might be the type of real-deal, rapidly rising phenom to convince me to saunter over to the punch bowl and try a sip.
In the case of this ”TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard' colt by Candy Ride (Arg), it's not just a matter of “how fast.” Although Emerging Market's two lifetime Beyer Speed Figures of 97 followed by a dip to 90 rank him in the upper tier of current Derby contenders, he rates a bit higher on the subjective “how he did it” scale.
In just a two-start racing career spanning six weeks, this Chad Brown trainee has gone from a debut maiden to winning the 1 3/16 miles GII Louisiana Derby. Racing effectively from both inside and outside posts, he has stalked, targeted and reeled in pacemakers while both covered up at the fence and from a few paths wide.
Most visually appealing have been Emerging Market's slugfest stretch runs, in which he has careened into the lane with serious, late-race momentum and been emboldened by shoulder-to-shoulder roughhousing with opponents, twice wresting command in the shadow of the wire by narrow margins.
With a victory in the season's first weekend of 100-points-to-the-winner qualifiers, the Klaravich Stables colorbearer has earned a berth in the Louisville starting gate if his connections–who are known for being conservative about not pushing young horses–want to buck convention and start a colt with only two lifetime starts in the Derby.
That angle that has produced only one winner in the 151-year history of the race, and has only been attempted six times since 1937.
On Sunday afternoon, Brown confirmed to TDN via text message that the Derby for Emerging Market is “very much under consideration.”
Emerging Market, a $185,000 KEESEP buy, descends from a female family in which the first two dams never hit the board in 11 combined races. But his dam, Wild Empress (Empire Maker), is a half-sister to the Eclipse Award-winning She Be Wild, winner of the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies in 2009.
Emerging Market debuted in a Tampa Bay Downs maiden special weight route over one mile 40 yards on the undercard of the Feb. 7 Sam F. Davis Stakes.
He broke alertly from post two at 3.2-1 odds under Flavien Prat, conceded the lead while saving ground into the turn, and responded to Prat's attempt to settle him at the back of the first flight.
Emerging Market then pulsed through at the inside, picking off horses through the far turn before darting off with a next-gear burst of acceleration at the quarter pole.
Spinning out to the five path, Emerging Market shifted in, bumping solidly with the favored leader several times through upper stretch. The two peeled off from the pack by 13 ½ lengths, taking turns alternating noses in front, before Emerging Market stubbornly prevailed by three-quarters of a length in 1:39.11 (.97 seconds off the track record) and galloped out with gusto.
Emerging Market drew the outermost nine post for this past Saturday's Louisiana Derby. Off at 2-1 favoritism, he broke with the leaders, and was again responsive to Prat's early-race attempt to pick ideal placement, which turned out to be a mid-pack stalking spot, fifth in the two path through the first turn.
Four lanes off the rail down the backstretch, Emerging Market advanced in hand, then encountered a minor momentum stall when he brushed with an inside rival and briefly got in tight on the heels of the horse in front of him. Effortlessly, Emerging Market recalibrated his cadence, and Prat nudged him outside.
Advancing in hand three furlongs out, Emerging Market glided to the front with a four-wide bid that briefly put him over the top at the quarter pole. But the 21-1 leader Pavlovian (Pavel)–a much more seasoned stakes winner making his tenth lifetime start–dug back in and re-seized the lead from the second-time starter.
The two sparred between the three-sixteenths and sixteenth poles before Emerging Market edged away with purpose to win by a head in 1:55.18.
“In his first race he showed a lot of professionalism,” Prat said. “I was a little worried about the nine hole, but we worked out a good trip. He fought hard. It was a good run, very professional. Honestly, when I turned for home I thought I would win easily, but Pavlovian gave us a good challenge.”
Emerging Market graduating at Tampa on Feb. 7 | SV Photography
The Kentucky Derby media guide has number-of-starts data dating back only to 1937 (the early decades of the Derby preceded the advent of past performances). But the media guide does contain a footnote explaining that, “Daily Racing Form's Jay Privman, with the help of Keeneland Library's Becky Ryder, determined through research that 1883 Derby winner Leonatus is the lone Kentucky Derby winner with just two lifetime starts.”
If (like me), Leonatus registers to you only as one of those names from a bygone era that you occasionally glance at on a souvenir Derby julep glass, take a nice little diversion over to his page on the American Classic Pedigrees site maintained by Avalyn Hunter.
There you'll learn that Leonatus was a well-proportioned, powerfully built bay who stood no more than 15.2 hands.
As a two-year-old, Leonatus raced only once, finishing second.
At age three, he won the Blue Ribbon Stakes in Lexington the week before the Kentucky Derby, then was sent off at 2-1 odds in the Derby itself, which at that time was contested over 12 furlongs.
The Churchill surface was reported as “stiff and slow” because of persistent pre-race rain. The start had to be taken twice because the field at first broke disjointedly. Leonatus pressed the pace and took over late to win by three lengths in 2:43.
If you think Leonatus overcame his lack of experience to win the Derby only to fade into obscurity, think again: He continued on a torrid win streak that netted him 10 stakes wins in a period of just seven weeks in the early part of 1883.
“Less than a week after the Kentucky Derby, Leonatus won the Tobacco Stakes. Then, three days later, he won the Woodburn Stakes,” a writeup by the Kentucky Historical Society explains. “Another win came at the Hindoo Stakes–later known as the Latonia Derby–and where he was ridden by legendary African American jockey Isaac Murphy. These wins were followed in close succession by victories at the Ripple Stakes, Himyar Stakes, Dearborn Stakes, Green Stakes, and Illinois Derby.”
Following his win in the Illinois Derby, notes the American Classic Pedigrees page, Leonatus was held via lien at Chicago as collateral to cover a $1,305 debt for “whisky, cigars, and borrowed money” that a co-owner had racked up. A $3,000 bond was required to get the Derby winner released the next day.
Other limited-start Derby entrants haven't fared as well.
Only one horse since 1937 has started in a Derby off just one lifetime start. Bert G. finished 14th in 1945.
The two-start Derby entrants since 1937 included Perfect Bahram (ninth in 1946), Senecas Coin (15th in 1949), Disposal (18th in 1992) and China Visit (sixth in 2000).
After a gap of more than two decades with no one trying the Derby off a base of just two lifetime starts, it's now happened twice within the past four years.
T O Password (JPN), who had raced twice in Japan, ran fifth in the 2024 Derby at 48-1 odds.
In 2022, 'Rising Star' Taiba was so well-regarded off two triple-digit Beyer wins (one in the GI Santa Anita Derby) that he was hammered in the Derby wagering to the 5-1 second choice. He finished twelfth.
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